Reply #16: A new poll for the MA race, and once again mixed results.

[Mass]

Suffolk has a new poll which is interesting because they have been doing pretty well predicting the 2010 races. However, even if the media are saying it shows Brown cannot be beaten, I think the results are mixed.

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.7NEWS.Suffolk.Marginals.April.5.2011.pdf

First, Brown's approval ratings are good (in the high 50 %), but far from being in the 70% as Kornacki predicted they were. In fact, this poll is in line with each other polls I have read. Sure, I would prefer it is a lot lower, but given the lovefest the media give him, it is to be expected. And people think he is independent (once again, given people are not informed, it is not surprising).

Second, despite pairing him against names that are a lot well known in the state (from Setti Warren to my congressman Markey), Brown tops at 52 % (even against Warren). So this is probably his top, and we can hope this will go down when somebody is actually running against him.

Two candidates were actually as well known as Brown: Joe Kennedy and Deval Patrick. We just reelected Patrick, so I dont see why it would be a surprise he is behind (though I think that, against Brown, he is the closest except for Joe Kennedy).

Now, the good surprise of the poll is that, with a name that is known statewide like Joe Kennedy, Brown becomes eminently beatable (particularly considering that Kennedy said repeatedly he was not running). So, once again, can we get a candidate NOW, so that the person has the time to be known statewide.

The last point is that the poll shows Brown's book was a flop in MA. Only 3% of the people polled bought it and about 70 % of people are not interested at all or very little interested by Brown's personal life. And this despite the media buzz on national and local TV for the last two or three months.

So, please, can we have candidates who start to campaign statewide.