Reply #3: Well, speaking as someone who never said Obama couldn't be elected...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I am saying that historically the Dems always lead in the generic ballot except in disaster years. 1950, the election that pretty much forced Truman to not run again. 1994, which speaks for itself. 2002, the very rare instance of Republican pick-ups in an off-year election with a pug in the WH. And now.

I am a life-long follower of the generic ballot question and it performs well. (It is so important because there is never timely polling in all house races.)

Of course anything can happen but the most likely course is a truly devastating election.

And if something changes the current path then that new reality will be reflected in the generic ballot polling.


Your cause-and-effect analysis presumes that in previous monster elections people were voting for unity and message. In actuality, the unity and message are window dressing that we find in years when one party or the other has a downhill course.

And reports of Republican disunity are badly overblown... twenty years from now it will be noted that Republicans held 100% of their caucus on almost every important vote and it will be noted that were unusually unified.

As for the plight of the Republican standard-bearer, they do not have one. The idea that McCain would be popular if the pugs were doing well is off-base. McCain is not a venerable symbol, he is a scapegoat. It's not like Newt Gingrich was running on a restoration of GHW Bush in 1994 and if GHW Bush had been running for anything and had been knocked off in a primary by whatever bozo Limbaugh supported it would not have a shock or at odds with the broad narrative that in 1994 people were going to vote for whichever bozos Limbaugh supported. (Though not solely because Limbaugh supported them.)

If the Republicans were unified and had a Contract with America and all that stuff it wouldn't make all that much difference in the election. The counter assumption is that a public that would, today, deliver a crushing blow to us in Congress is likely to change their thinking based on future analysis of Republican worthlessness.

But Republican worthlessness is priced into the numbers. The public does not lack for evidence of Republican worthlessness. They don't care that Republicans are worthless. They want to vote against something.