salon.com: A cautionary tale for Obama and his supporters as they rejoice over Newt Gingrich's rise

[Douglas Carpenter]

Thursday, Dec 8, 2011 11:06 PM 01:37:34 UTC+1000

When a Democratic dream turn into a nightmare

A cautionary tale for Obama and his supporters as they rejoice over Newt Gingrich's rise

By Steve Kornacki


Ronald Reagan gives the thumbs-up sign as he leaves the podium after addressing supporters at his Los Angeles election headquarters on Nov. 5, 1980. (Credit: AP)

A solid victory in Illinois steadied Reagan’s campaign and ended the Anderson boomlet and Ford chatter, but an ABC News poll starkly illustrated the damage that had been done: Against Carter and his dismal approval ratings, the survey showed Reagan losing by 18 points. (By comparison, Ford ran ten points ahead of Carter in the same poll.) That Reagan would end up extending the Carter presidency for another term became conventional wisdom. Typical was this March ’80 column from Joseph C. Harsch, the long-time writer for the Christian Science Monitor:

And Mr. Carter’s chances for re-election go up every time another vigorous and moderate Republican like Sen. Howard Baker or a vigorous, modern, decisive, and experienced Republican like John Connally has to withdraw from lack of support

Does this mean that history is bound to repeat itself if Newt walks away with the nomination? Not necessarily. Obama isn’t in as bad shape as Carter was, while Gingrich, as Lloyd Bentsen might say, is no Ronald Reagan. Gingrich may simply be the Goldwater that everyone thought Reagan was back in 1980.

Then again, when voters are motivated enough to throw out an incumbent, the bar for the opposition party isn’t that high. Reagan’s triumph showed this. Had he been the nominee in ’76, when voters were still angry with Republicans for Watergate and Carter was just a refreshing outsider from Georgia, all of the general election attacks on Reagan that fizzled in ’80 would have had a very different impact. Which is another way of saying that when the climate is just right, very strange things can happen.



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