Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Sharply

[underpants]

14 minutes ago

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=&e=4&u=/ap/20040219/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/jobless_claims

WASHINGTON - The number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, offering hope that companies may be feeling better about business conditions and less inclined to hand out pink slips.

The Labor Department (news - web sites) reported Thursday that for the work week ending Feb. 14, new applications filed for jobless benefits plunged by a seasonally adjusted 24,000 to 344,000. It marked the largest decline since the beginning of November and left claims at their lowest level since the week ending Jan. 24.

That was better than economists were expecting. They were forecasting claims to decrease to a level of around 351,000 for last week. Part of last week's decline reflected fewer layoffs in weather-sensitive businesses in some parts of the country that had been previously hard hit by winter's harsh weather, a Labor Department analyst said.

Thursday's report also showed that the number of unemployed people collecting jobless benefits for more than a week rose by 106,000 to 3.2 million for the week ending Feb. 7, the most recent period for which that information is available. This suggests that jobs are still hard to find for some workers.

Reuters headline:
Jobless Claims Drop on Better Weather

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20040219/bs_nm/economy_jobless_dc

[still_one]

1. But how many are hiring

Also, what about those who are not counted, or who are off the list entirely.

[papau]

2. unemployed collecting jobless benefits rose by 106,000 to 3.2 million

number of unemployed people collecting jobless benefits for more than a week rose by 106,000 to 3.2 million should be headline - followed by explanation of those forced off the rolls because the GOP refused to do a 13 week extension.

[lovedems]

3. Well, the numbers are coming from the Labor Deptartment

and they also play politics rather than policy. Every department under this administration is totally bunk...USDA/mad cow, Tresury/job growth, labor dept/unemployment claims, EPA/clean water act I see the trend and therefor anything that comes out of this administration or any agency think/tank associated with it is just not believable.

How can the number collecting unemployment go up while the number filing goes down? I guess I don't understand that. It would appear if to me if less people are filing, less people would be collecting. Is the same as a booming jobless recovery? You can't have both.

[underpants]

7. Leads to a question about the "self employed"

Are there really that many people who have started their own businesses OR does that mean that well you aren't collecting a paycheck and you aren't getting unemployment so you must be "self employed" right? You are still paying for things somehow, right?

Me thinks that "up ____ creek without a paddle" is now "self employed".

[lovedems]

13. Well, business must suck for those people!

To bad they decimated the small business fund, I bet those people could sure use the help right now!

[junker]

4. Yep. THis is the new math....how can 255K people drop off the rolls,

and then there is so few new claims, and yet continuing claims is up 106K?

Yes, by the way, each new claimant IS factored into continuing claims...so somebody at the gov BLS cannot add nor subtract....

[lovedems]

6. Yeah, I edited my post to include that. A thinking person would

surely question these numbers. They don't make a lick of sense. I am not a "predictor" though, so what do I know.

[UpInArms]

9. I think the key paragraph in this article

is this:

The Labor Department (news - web sites) reported Thursday that for the work week ending Feb. 14, new applications filed for jobless benefits plunged by a seasonally adjusted 24,000 to 344,000. It marked the largest decline since the beginning of November and left claims at their lowest level since the week ending Jan. 24.

Am not at all certain that this number reflects a reality.

[ewagner]

5. Expect

Expect to hear crowing from the Commander-in-thief sometime today.

He will practice good old 19th Century " Boosterism" to cover the fact that we're teatering on the edge of another recession.

[lovedems]

8. Well, my husband has been umemployed from the IT industry

for going on 8 months so when he talks about the economy recovering I scream at the television "show me the jobs!".

When will the citizens of this country wake up and realize this administration doesn't have a clue as what they are talking about? I don't give a damn about Wall Street right now, I care about Main Street and that little figure is always left out of their "economic recovery".

[Just Me]

14. The administration is perfectly aware of the people on "Main Street".

Don't doubt that!!!

Sometimes, I believe that psy-ops are being pulled on the whole country. I realize that's an exaggeration,...but, I do believe that the appearance of optimism is really a tactic for deception. It's simply illusory.

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

15. No, wait a second...

"this administration doesn't have a clue as what they are talking about"

...this administration knows exactly what it's doing. That's why we've seen the "outsourcing is GOOD" statement, then the "No, it is TRAGIC when any American loses a job" retraction, then the "over 2 million jobs by the end of 2004" statement, followed by Bush's "those numbers came from bean counters, and I'm not a bean counter" retraction, and all of the encouraging talk about how each and every unemployed 'murcan is going to get $75 to go to a Bush Junior College Job Retraining Camp. And if that wasn't enough, he's going to help you with your marriage and send you to Mars. Maybe. The Mars thing has become questionable but he's still going to fight for the rights of all you hetero patriots out there to indulge in wedded bliss, just like he does with Laura. So far there is no truth to the rumor that each couple participating will receive a copy of the book "Men are From Mars, Women Are From Venus" and an official George W. Bush flight suit, plus a "Mission Accomplished" banner for...well, enough of that I guess...:-(

The administration is using the Karl Rove method of "tell them anything until they believe it, and until they vote Bush, and then we will continue to do whatever the hell we want for the next four years. Just keep saying STUFF and sooner or later someone will be stupid enough to believe it, and by the time we're called on to prove it, we'll already be re-elected."

Read "Boy Genius" and "Bush's Brain." This is what Karl Rove gets paid to do. This is who he is. He's an amoral pig who focuses on one objective and gives no thought to gets lied to, betrayed, or hurt along the way. And as we know from the SOTU, Karen Hughes has her pudgy little fingers back in the pie too.

Bush DOES give a damn about Wall Street. That war chest he's getting ready to spend on smear ads and propaganda on how he protected you from terra DID NOT COME FROM "Main Street." Bush has ONE USE and ONE USE ONLY for "Main Street"...re-elect him...and then it's an immediate about-face to the attitude we have right now, which is "F**k Main Street."

Folks, we've got to stop thinking or wishing that Bush /Cheney / Rummy / Asscroft / Colin / Condi / and the corpulent propaganda twins Karl 'n' Karen care if we LIVE or DIE.

They do not.

[DUJunkie]

16. KICK

:yourock:

[tom2kpro]

17. No one should bet too much on static economic reality

I mean, the economy tends to involve cycles. You may be able to speed up your progress along the curve, or even accentuate or soften the ups and downs through policy moves, but the cycles are pretty much unavoidable.

If one bets too heavily on a particular job situation existing several months from now, one could make a costly mistake. We are probably headed toward better times, in the short term at least. No one can predict when the consequences of current high spending levels could come home to roost, but one should not count on anything before the election.

Also, one needs to make sure one does not make too much of phenomena that may not be observed by enough people. For example, if you live in some place where everyone has been laid off from great IT jobs, do not assume that things are the same way everywhere. It took me a long time to really let it sink in that where I live, near DC, is NOT representative of the IT economy elsewhere. Some people have suffered from the fall of big IT dotcoms in Reston and Herndon, but it is not the widespread nightmare that existed in some other places (often with even higher costs of living, so the pain is even deeper).

Here, the federal government has hired lots of folks for civilian, defense, homeland security, etc. So if I hear the sky is falling, it may not ring as resonantly to me as it would if I lived in a place with fewer federal jobs and contract positions to soak up the unemployed.

All I am saying is that if we keep talking about unemployment, we need to make sure that we do not overstate the case so that a lot of people might believe it but not really feel it, if you know what I mean. The reality is that unemployment is probably going to improve. Now outsourcing, on the other hand, is something that gets people fuming, but it is hard to say that this is something that Bush is directly responsible for. Corporate greed and disregard for the interests of rank and file workers is definitely a bipartisan thing.

[mth44sc]

10. So last weeks number was revised upward?

In order for this weeks 24,000 drop - they had to have revised last week upward by 5000? Nice work again folks - last week was made to look not as bad as it was - and this week is made to look better than it is...

__________

In the week ending Feb. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 363,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 350,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average of 345,500.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

[Yavin4]

11. Seasonally Adjusted

If I could seasonally adjust my height, I could be playing in the NBA.

[treepig]

12. are you too tall at present?

(just a smart-ass allusion to the down-ward direction of the current "seasonal adjustment")