Iran: Sanctions, geopolitics and the economy
BY MATEIN KHALID
7 January 2007
EVER since Jimmy Carter invoked the International Emergency War Powers Act to freeze revolutionary Iran’s assets with global banks on Wall Street and the City of London, Washington has used economics as a strategic weapon against the Ayatullah’s regime.
Yet George W Bush’s doomed imperial adventure in Iraq was a geopolitical windfall for Teheran at a time when $60 crude oil has boosted its central bank reserves to $50 billion, the highest since the Shah lost his Peacock Throne in 1979. Iranian petrodollars, in turn, financed the arms, cash war chest and logistics of Hezbollah, Hamas, the Alawite Baathist regime in Syria and the Iraqi Shia militias and death squads. In the zero–sum game of Middle East politics, Iran has challenged Washington’s role as the regional superpower and gendarme of the Gulf.
As the UN sanctions bite, Israel threatens to launch a preemptive air strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iraq degenerates into the Arab world’s grisliest sectarian slaughterhouse and Lebanon faces a proxy civil war with Teheran as a principal actor, war in the Middle East seems imminent. Yet economic sanctions could, paradoxically, arrest the countdown to war if they force Iran to accept the geopolitical status quo, akin to Ayatullah Khoemini’s decision to accept a ceasefire on the Shatt al Arab in 1988. Unlike Israel or Pakistan, Iran’s nuclear program is not an existential strategic deterrent but a component in President Ahmedinijad’s domestic political legitimacy as he invoked Persian nationalism against his clerical rivals, led by Supreme Leader Khameni.
The Shia clerical establishment of Iran, with its bazaari merchant constituencies and its monopolistic grip on power, has no interest in an apocalyptic, suicidal military confrontation with the West. Power, not theology, has defined Iran’s calculus of realpolitik ever since the rule of President Hashemi Rafsanjani. The new President is no Qum powerbroker and it thus compelled to invoke Persian nationalism, anti–Zionist rhetoric and even the Hidden Imam from the Shia theological cosmos to buttress his revolutionary credentials and camouflage his economic failure...cont'd
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