Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

A study asks, Which pundits make the best predictions?

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Editorials & Other Articles Donate to DU
 
ThatPoetGuy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-11 09:51 PM
Original message
A study asks, Which pundits make the best predictions?
They studied the opinions of 26 professional pundits and saw whose forecasts were most accurate.

"Liberals were more likely than conservatives to predict accurately."

You're going to love who's number one.

http://www.metafilter.com/103156/The-prophets-prophesy-falsely-and-the-priests-bear-rule-by-their-means-and-my-people-love-to-have-it-so-and-what-will-ye-do-in-the-end-thereof
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
OHdem10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-11 09:56 PM
Response to Original message
1. This is because the Liberals for the most part are more truthful.
Their mind is therefore not as cluttered trying to remember
all the lies, for fear of being caught. Really, Liberals
tend to be more realistic.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tularetom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-11 10:05 PM
Response to Original message
2. Half of the "pundits" in this study were actually politicians
I guess the problem is that a lot of those who we consider pundits do not actually make predictions but rather comment on events as they unfold.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ThatPoetGuy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-11 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. I couldn't think of a better word than pundit, sorry.
"Political prognosticator"?

There's something redeeming when you look at who earned the top score and who earned the bottom.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tularetom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-11 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. The results were very satisfying
It particularly brought out the fact that prognosticators like Joe Loserman and Graham were predicting with their hearts rather than their heads.

There was no way McCain was going to defeat Obama in 2008.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
hvn_nbr_2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-11 01:37 AM
Response to Original message
5. Yeah, but did that study note whether they were intending to make factual...
statements when they made their predictions?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-11 05:30 AM
Response to Original message
6. the media isn't interested in objective analysis and prediction
the media is interested in dramatic confrontation.

so instead of giving space and time to objective, thoughtful, and thorough political analysis and prediction, they give space and time to political advocacy and try to pass it off as analysis.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Scuba Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-11 06:57 AM
Response to Original message
7. "Readers could learn by believing the opposite of what Cal Thomas writes"
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Sat May 25th 2024, 02:26 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Editorials & Other Articles Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC