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Critical mass has taken hold. Bush is in a free-falling death spiral.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:17 PM
Original message
Critical mass has taken hold. Bush is in a free-falling death spiral.
Edited on Sat Feb-28-04 10:41 PM by TruthIsAll
Like a wave which is building, more and more people give Bush the thumbs-down. They talk to their relatives, friends and associates, who talk to their relatives, friends and associates...

Before you know it, he's down to his freeper base, wherever that is (30%-35%)?

The CBS poll results have just been reported. Bush has dropped from 50% to 47%. Last month, the CBS poll rating exactly matched the 8-poll average of 50%. This is on top of the prior 10% CBS poll decline last month (there was a 6% decline in the 8-poll average -see below). So, he has dropped 13% from the Dec. CBS poll 60% rating after he got his Saddam capture bounce. And that's just TWO months- an average 6.5% per month.

Bush has seen his poll numbers rise only three times in 36 months: 9/11 (+33), Iraq war (+12), Saddam capture (+4). His numbers have declined in the other 33 months.

If he gets Osama, the bounce will add no more than 2-3 points. And it will be a temporary one. Just like Saddam. One month tops.

In any case, he's toast, $200 million for advertising and dirty tricks not withstanding. This vaunted fund-raiser is now just a very unpopular AWOL-deserter lame-duck.

He's going to run out of supporters. No one likes a loser. Not even Diebold.

Currently, Bush approval is exactly 50% based on an average of the following 8 polls: 1=Newsweek 2=Fox 3=CNN 4=Pew 5=Harris 6=CBS 7=ABC 8=Time.

40% is our next target. Give him 3 months, maximum.


Date....1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8........ Avg...4moMA
02/01 52 55 57 53 na 53 55 52 ....53.86
03/01 55 56 63 56 56 53 58 55 ....56.50
04/01 57 63 59 53 49 60 63 na ....57.71 56.02
05/01 57 59 53 50 59 56 55 52 .. 55.13 55.80
06/01 na 59 55 51 50 57 na na .. 54.40 55.93
07/01 na 56 52 52 56 na 59 55 .. 55.00 55.56
08/01 na 55 55 50 52 53 55 na .. 53.33 54.46
09/01 86 81 51 80 na 50 86 84 .. 74.00 59.18
10/01 84 80 87 84 88 89 92 89 .. 86.63 67.24 9/11 +33
11/01 85 84 87 84 86 87 89 87 .. 86.13 75.02
12/01 82 86 86 na 82 85 89 82 .. 84.57 82.83
01/02 na 83 84 80 79 86 86 77 .. 82.14 84.87
02/02 83 81 82 78 79 84 83 na .. 81.43 83.57
03/02 74 80 81 na 77 82 82 75 .. 78.71 81.71
04/02 71 79 76 74 75 78 79 75 .. 75.88 79.54
05/02 73 72 77 na 74 76 78 72 .. 74.57 77.65
06/02 70 74 70 70 70 71 77 70 .. 71.50 75.17
07/02 68 70 76 67 62 70 72 70 .. 69.38 72.83
08/02 61 69 68 60 63 65 69 na .. 65.00 70.11
09/02 70 66 66 63 68 66 69 65 .. 66.63 68.13
10/02 61 65 67 na 64 66 67 61 .. 64.43 66.36
11/02 60 68 63 61 65 63 67 64 .. 63.88 64.98
12/02 na 65 64 61 64 61 66 55 .. 62.29 64.30
01/03 56 63 63 58 na 65 59 53 .. 59.57 62.54
02/03 61 57 61 54 52 59 64 62 .. 58.75 61.12
03/03 53 60 57 55 na 56 62 54 .. 56.71 59.33
04/03 71 71 70 67 70 68 71 62 .. 68.75 60.95 Shock and Awe +12
05/03 65 65 69 65 na 67 71 63 .. 66.43 62.66
06/03 61 66 64 60 61 67 68 na .. 63.86 63.94
07/03 55 60 62 58 na 66 59 55 .. 59.29 64.58
08/03 53 59 60 56 57 60 59 na .. 57.71 61.82
09/03 52 58 52 55 na 55 56 52 .. 54.29 58.79
10/03 51 52 55 50 59 52 54 na .. 53.29 56.14
11/03 52 52 54 50 na 54 56 52 .. 52.86 54.54
12/03 51 52 55 58 48 49 53 54 .. 52.50 53.23
01/04 54 58 60 56 50 60 58 54 .. 56.25 53.72 Saddam Capture +4
02/04 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 .. 50.00 52.90
03/04 na na na na na 47 na na -----

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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:18 PM
Response to Original message
1. unless something terribly happens in the next 3 months, like
another terrorist attack.....
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Qanisqineq Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:24 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. but will work against him this time
if there is another terrorist attack, it will prove that he isn't doing a wonderful job protecting the nation.
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PurityOfEssence Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-01-04 04:20 AM
Response to Reply #2
75. If it happens on Election Day, expect Martial Law
These people HAVE TO RETAIN POWER, just as they did in '02. This is what led me to believe at the time--as I still do--that Wellstone was killed. No chance of investigations can be left open; they were so dirty with Enron, 9-11 and the California Energy looting that they could endure no examination. Add to that Venezuela, the shocking lies to gin up a revenge/thievery war with Iraq, the Plame affair and now the outright lie of Haiti, and they can't allow scrutiny. Expect anything. Expect them to void the elections because people were too fearful to go to the polls.
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yorgatron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:24 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. another terror attack would only PROVE that * is weak
remember he was boasting about how we haven't been attacked since 911?
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alcuno Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:32 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. I'm afraid that * isn't the only one who could execute an October surprise
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DoYouEverWonder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. He doesn't even remember
the anthrax attack anymore?

Or the smiley face bomber or the DC Sniper or the Ohio Hwy Sniper...

Nay, not one single attack since 9-11.

Not to mention all the attacks around the world from the French tanker, to Bali, to apartment complexes in Saudi Arabia, to Turkey....


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union_maid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:31 PM
Response to Original message
4. People are catching on...
These people are not on the side of their own citizens. Once this really sinks in, I don't see how even capturing Osama can save them..although that would help, no question.
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Gman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:31 PM
Response to Original message
5. He's only at 12 - 17% more than the freeper base
Maybe as much as 22% more than the freeper base. I usually figure the freeper base at 25%. That includes the irreparably fubared RW.

Looking at it a different way, assuming the Dems have a 25 - 30%, yellow dog base, the Dem nominee is favored in a lot of polls by an additional 25 - 30% over the base.
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gristy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #5
15. I would suggest that the "freeper base" may prove to be illusory
and made of sand, not rock. Many of the diehard republicans are figuring out that * and his cabal are not their kind of republicans. There have been many posts here about friends and acquaintances who in spite of being "card carrying" republicans have vowed to NOT vote for * in November. Many more republicans will see the light over the next 8 months.
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Gman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #15
18. I consisder the "freeper base"
the 25 - (no more than)30% of the electorate that are knuckle dragging RW'ers and would never under any circumstances vote for a Dem.

The Dems have a similar number for their base.
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jmowreader Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #18
51. That freeper base may turn on him yet
Very few of them will vote for either Kerry or Edwards--Kerry because he's a war protestor, Edwards because he's a personal injury lawyer, either because they're Democrats--but that also doesn't mean they're constitutionally required to vote for Bush.

How the freeper base will shake out: Half will vote for Bush. Certainly everyone who benefited dramatically from Bush's tax cut will--that's about ten percent of the freeper base. The other forty percent who will vote for him are single-issue voters who are either pro-life, anti-gay or fundamentalist Christian and who would vote for Attila the Hun if he came out on the "right" side of their one issue. Those people think they're well served by Bush.

Maybe ten percent will vote for the Democrat. They're still single-issue voters, but they think a little more clearly than do those other folks. They don't like gay marriage, say, but John (fill in a surname) says he doesn't approve of gay marriage either. Well, I guess that "civil union" thing really isn't a marriage in a church so it's okay--anyone who doesn't get married in a church isn't really married*--and John will jump-start the economy. Or they're Christians and faith is important, but they see Bush is the kind of Christian who takes his suit to church every Sunday, while John is a good Christian.

Ten percent won't vote for president at all in protest. And they'll hold their noses and vote for the Democratic congressional candidates because, if Bush does somehow steal the election again, a Democratic Congress will get rid of the SOB.

The other thirty percent will vote for either the Libertarian candidate or Nader. The LP will see this as a mandate, when in reality it's a referendum on the sitting dictator.

That's the freeper base. Our base will vote for John. The swing voters are the worrisome bunch--many will vote for Bush against their economic, political, moral, and survival self-interests. But with fifty percent of the freepers voting against Dumbass, we should be okay.

* I wasn't married in a church either. Please don't jump me. This is the Republican thinking.
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Skittles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #18
63. probably true
I could never in good conscience vote for a republican; they make me sick.
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Ladyhawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 10:04 AM
Response to Reply #15
45. Unfortunately, none of the Repubs I know have figured it out.
My family and the community are still strongly RW.
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Skittles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 05:16 PM
Response to Reply #45
64. TELL ME WHERE THEY ARE LADYHAWK
I WILL COME OVER AND KICK SOME ASS. :7
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Imajika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:45 PM
Response to Original message
7. When I see these posts..
...it reminds me how absolutely ignorant many people here are about how American politics work.

Bush is down in the polls because he hasn't been campaigning yet, hasn't been running ads, and has been beaten up continually during the Democratic primaries for the last 3 months or so.

Anyone spouting this "Bush is toast" stuff is simply not living in the real world.

If you think for a minute the media alone won't make sure this will be a close election...well, your nuts.

Once our nominee is determined with reasonable certainty, and that will likely happen after next Tuesday - you can count on the media zeroing in on Kerry like a laser. We have absolutely no idea whether the public will like what it sees once the press and the GOP hatchetmen go to work.

I can think of several issues right of the top of my head that concern me about how the public will react to Kerry once they get to know him. His being against the death penalty, voting against DOMA and anti-war activities are just a start.

To believe that "Bush is done" or "Bush is toast" is completely naive, shows an absolute lack of understanding of the fact that a single week in politics can change everything, and may well set those who engage in it up for one of the biggest letdowns of their lives.

Polls right now mean almost nothing. We will have a better idea who is really toast a few weeks before the actual election, but I would unfortuantly still say Bush is the odds on favorite.

Imajika
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trumad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Imajika, Ive bookmarked this post of yours
Edited on Sat Feb-28-04 10:49 PM by trumad
and believe me,,, When Bush is left smouldering pile of shit after the election I plan on reminding you of your lousy prediction...

Bush is Toast and I do know Politics!
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Imajika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. Okay trumad
I will hope I am wrong, and will be more than happy to congratulate you on being correct.

But remember, I didn't predict anything right now other than to say that Bush is still the odds on favorite. What I said was that premature announcements of Bush's demise are a very bad idea and just plain foolish.

Concensus DU predictions are often awful, and I believe that is because we have more forum members engaging in wishful thinking than those whom take a realistic look at the political situation we find ourselves in at any given time.

"Bush is Toast and I do know Politics!"

If you really know politics, then you'd know it is far too early to make such predictions.

Imajika
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DoctorMyEyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. I agree with you Imajika
While I am interested in tracking the poll numbers I think it's a mistake for anyone to start uncorking the champagne just yet.

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Deja Q Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 11:20 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Agreed! People have forgotten 2002 as if it were 1999...
Except they'll either murder another Dem and get Rick Khan to comer back and open his pansy mouth... or have Reagan bop off, have their version fo Rick Khan spout off with no Dems to complain in retaliation for the partisan nature of the event...

It's not over by a long shot, I'm sad to say...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 02:43 AM
Response to Reply #12
32. Since when is it foolish to make an educated projection based
Edited on Sun Feb-29-04 02:53 AM by TruthIsAll
on one's perception of the facts? Even when the election is nine months away. That's the point, isn't it? I suppose you will wait until the day before the election to make your pick. You had better believe that Repuke politicians are making their own forecasts right now - and realize they may have to distance themselves from Bush to win.

Imajika, it's ok for you to predict that the media will force this race into a close election. What is the basis of your projection? Is it because of how the media treated Al Gore?

Could it be that the media senses that Bush is Toast? Is that so inconceivable to you, especially in light of the media Bush-bashing which has just come into vogue. What makes you think the media will let Rove plant dirt on Kerry? You saw what happened with the JFK "affair" and the doctored Jane Fonda photo.

And if they used the Rove dirt, do you really believe Kerry would not fight back? If the chickenhawks think they can get away with questioning Kerry's patriotism, just let them try it. It will backfire so fast they won't know what hit them.

The emperor has no clothes. Apparently, you're going to be the last one to know it.
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OneTwentyoNine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 07:54 AM
Response to Reply #32
39. Huh,was that photo with Kerry/Jane Fonda doctored??
I hadn't heard that,I don't remember seeing it mentioned here other than the fact that it was taken a full two years before she went to North VN which makes the RW comparison to a traitor null.

David

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 09:45 AM
Response to Reply #39
43. It sure was doctored - here is the link..

Newsday.com - 1971 Photo of Kerry Doctored
... presidential hopeful began e-mailing Light's picture to one another four days ago, it depicted Fonda standing by Kerry's side. The photo had been doctored. ...
www.newsday.com/ny-kerry0215,0,4733861.story?coll=ny-top-headlines - 46k - Cached - Similar pages

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OneTwentyoNine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #43
47. That's a pic I haven't seen...the pic link doesn't work..
I thought it was the one where both Kerry and Fonda were sitting in the grass at the rally--Kerry being a couple of rows back.

Anyone have the other picture,or has it been scrubbed? Thanks

David
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jmowreader Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #39
48. Which one are you talking about?
There are two. The most infamous one is the freeper Photoshop attempt that put Jane Fonda next to John Kerry.

The other one's real, but it's a crowd shot with Fonda in the foreground and Kerry several rows behind her.
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OneTwentyoNine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #48
50. The first one you mention..
If its the same one that TIA is talking about. I guess the shot shows Kerry at a podium with Fonda at his side,thats the one that is faked.

I've seen the crowd shot photo with Kerry a few rows back. I thought that was the pic that RW screamers like Boortz were using when they were calling Kerry for hanging with a tratior. Maybe it was the other one where he was at the podium.

David
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #50
52. The crowd shot photo with JFK in back of Fonda was doctored.
..
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trumad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 05:14 AM
Response to Reply #12
37. LOL
I knew it in 2001. He's a shoot yourself in the foot fucking Republican!
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calimary Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #12
62. Imajika, I, too, worry that you're correct.
Don't get me wrong. I LOVE seeing every testimonial, here, there, and everywhere else, of the "bush is TOAST" nature. These are certainly morale boosters, and they can and should be used to keep our resolve turned up on high. But we MUST NOT let any of it allow us to become complacent and drop our guard. THIS IS NOT A DONE DEAL, BY A LONG SHOT!

The day is new. We've only just begun to venture down the long road to Election Day. I hope you AND I are both wrong. But we haven't yet heard the full "shock and awe" from the republi-CONS. bush is only just getting started. And considering the vermin he has working for him, and what they're capable of, I dread the coming months. And I'm only coming around lately to making a commitment to Kerry (who seems the likely nominee at this point). OF COURSE I will support him full-on if he's the guy, but he does have some weak spots (in the minds of the knuckle-draggers - his physical proximity to "Hanoi Jane," for example, has NEVER bothered me).

But this game is only in the VERY beginning stages. bush is NOTHING to be trifled with. Note, curiously enough, he does NOT have the fabled 200 million dollars in his warchest. But he's still got a LOT and Kerry and Edwards are both running pretty much on fumes at the moment, if I'm not mistaken. Granted, money will certainly come when we have our designated nominee. But we're going to have to fight with EVERYTHING we've got. AND we have to hope, AND PROMOTE, whatever "problems" crop up for bush, so the dissatisfaction with him among the voters doesn't get papered over by some temporary cosmetics that they'll see in his campaign ads. Plus, the attack ads are probably gonna be brutal. WE HAVE TO BE READY, AND BE READY TO FIGHT LIKE OUR LIVES DEPENDED ON IT.

Because, frankly, (and ESPECIALLY if you're coming up on draftable age) they do.

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pacifictiger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. I agree that it will be a close election.
Hes got 200 million to spend in 8 months and hes still holding fundraisers - thats over $800thousand a DAY to spend folks. You can buy a lot of votes with that kind of money. And with the madison avenue media hypnotic trance that most people suffer from, it remains an uphill battle to unseat the emperor.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. And, you, Imajika, refuse to acknowledge the fact that
Edited on Sat Feb-28-04 11:24 PM by TruthIsAll
once a politician loses credibility, he can never get it back.

Bush has no credibility. He is a proven serial-lying, brain-dead, buck-passing coward. No one can save his sorry ass.

The media wants him gone. He's bad for business. Have you read the NY Times lately?

And the scandals are just beginning to percolate. He is vulnerable in at least 7 areas: 9/11 coverup,Iraq intel/ OSP, Plame/Wilson, Bugging Blix/U.N., Democratic e-mail spying, Halliburton/Enron,
TANG AWOL...

And I'm sure there are others out there.
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Imajika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. Your list of Bush vulnerabilities alone...
...shows me how naive your being.

"And the scandals are just beginning to precolate. He is vulnerable in at least 7 areas: 9/11 coverup,Iraq intel/ OSP, Plame/Wilson, Bugging Blix/U.N., Democratic e-mail spying, Halliburton/Enron,
TANG AWOL"

Good grief. Why would Bush be vulnerable on the UN bugging and Democratic email spying?

First, the USA has been bugging the UN forever - Americans do not care. Actually on this one, I don't care. Nor will anyone in America care that the US was asking Britian to eavesdrop for us.

Second, I don't believe the Democratic email spying has anything to do with the Bush administration from what I've seen. This is not an issue Bush has anything to be concerned about. It appears to me to be more a internal Senate issue. That the democratic email information was going to the White House is just not going to matter to most of America. Infact, I suspect they'd see it as business as usual.

Now, lets address your TANG AWOL vulnerability.

I am fairly sure that this story has burned itself out. It will continue to rage on political forums, but as a national media story I suspect it is pretty much done. Further, I rather doubt most of the American public gives a rats ass about it anyway.

Haliburton/Enron?

Sorry, those are also issues that are not going to interest many mainstream voters. Unless someone can prove real, direct, criminal wrongdoing done by either Bush or Cheney having to do with Haliburton or Enron - those puppies are going nowhere other than fodder on political message boards.

Plame/Wilson?

Maybe, but I doubt it.

9-11 Coverup?

If you mean LIHOP or MIHOP, well, no he is not vulnerable on it because those theories just aren't going beyond the tin foil hat crowd.

If you mean damaging conclusions from the 9-11 panel showing that the Bush administration could have done more to prevent 9-11 I would agree he is vulnerable.

Iraq-intelligence/lack of WMD's?

I agree, he is vulnerable here. What will matter most though is the situation on the ground in Iraq later this year. Because Kerry also voted for the IWR, Bush will be somewhat insulated on this. Saying that, if things go badly south in Iraq - it will make Bush vulnerable.

Your problem, TruthIsAll, is that you seem to believe that all the negative focus will be on Bush and his various failures and miscues. But that is not what will happen. Kerry will have his own share of vulnerabilities. The next 8 months will not just be a bash Bush fest, there will also be periods where Kerry gets the tar beat out of him by the media.

My prediction: The polls will go up and down. I suspect Kerry will lead Bush for another month or two in most polls, and then Bush will close in and possible go ahead of Kerry. The two will then go back and forth for awhile depending on who is getting killed in various media cycles and negative press feeding frenzies. The Democrats will have their convention and Kerry will go ahead, the Republicans will then have theirs and Bush will pull even (I believe that chosing NY will backfire as the public will see it as a publicity stunt). Then Bush and Kerry will be neck and neck in the polls to within a couple weeks of the election. At this point a frontrunner could truly emerge - or it could remains so close that we will be up very late on election night.

It is ofcourse also possible that your correct and Bush will continue his downward spiral, but it is just as likely, if not more likely, that Kerry will see his lead evaporate and fall almost permanently behind Bush if the public doesn't take to him and the GOP is successful in painting Kerry in an unflattering light.

We will see. Hope you are right and I am wrong, but I strongly believe that your comments are overly optimistic and hopelessly naive.

Imajika
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graphixtech Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. the public's perception about 9-11
is quickly changing, imo.

As someone who visits the weekly 9-11 protests held in the ultra conservative KC Plaza shopping district, I will assure you that many well to do people have also grown increasingly suspicious about the facts surrounding the 9-11 issue. Despite what the media wants everyone to believe, they cannot stop the growing public belief in LIHOP or MIHOP.

Many excellent citizens ARE paying attention to this issue. There is a palpable feeling that the legitimate 9-11 questions and cover-up are being ignored by our 'representatives' and the media.

Over 1500 Kansas Citians came out to listen to Ellen Mariani and Phil Berg speak and they also held three main television interviews. (Here is a link, with three photos).
http://kcindymedia.org/newswire/display/1321/index.php


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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #17
21. I'm Hopelessly Naive? And you are hopelessly in denial of reality..
Bush can NEVER recover. Is that not obvious to you? You seem to disregard the fact that Bush's poll numbers have declined in 33 out of 36 months.

I will repeat the FACTS you fail to see:

On 9/11, his ratings bumped 33%. Now we know he knew and did nothing. Strike one..

Right after invading Iraq, they bumped 12%. Mission Accomplished? NOT. Strike two.

On capturing Saddam, they were up 4%. End of the terrorist attacks? No. Strike three.

He is universally despised. But you don't see it. His support, outside of his freeper base, is disintegrating. He lost in 2000. No one knew then just how bad he was.

And Larry Flynt along with others have yet to be heard.

Imajika, open your eyes. The Bush decline has accelerated, but it has been steady from Day One of his pResidency. Thirty-three out of thirty-six months he has gone down in the polls. But you fail to look at these facts. If they mean nothing to you, then you are relying on your gut instinct, nothing more.

You are entitled to your opinion. Just don't call me naive. I have been following elections closely since 1952. I will match my knowledge against yours on issues, numbers and trends in every election since then.
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Imajika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 01:06 AM
Response to Reply #21
24. TruthIsAll
"Bush can NEVER recover."

This statement of yours is simply all I need to know that you infact do not understand politics very well.

No keen political observer would EVER say that. One week in politics can turn conventional wisdom upside down. Eight months in politics is an eternity. Anything can happen, and quite a lot will.

Who knew gay marriage would become such a huge issue? How will it impact the election? Suddenly this volatile story could change much of the political dynamic going into 2004.

You may say it won't, but I will tell you for certain that you can't know that for sure.

Who knows what else will happen. What if OBL is captured? How will the press play it? What other events could come along and change everything?

"Is that not obvious to you?"

No, it isn't obvious to me that Bush can't recover. And no decent political analyst with a good track record would say such a thing.

You don't know Bush can't recover, because you can't know how Kerry will hold up. It is all well and good to say the public is tiring of Bush, but if a majority dislike Kerry more - and they might, Bush could see his poll ratings rise and go on to victory in November.

"I will repeat the FACTS you fail to see:
On 9/11, his ratings bumped 33%. Now we know he knew and did nothing. Strike one.
Right after invading Iraq, they bumped 12%. Mission Accomplished? NOT. Strike two.
On capturing Saddam, they were up 4%. End of the terrorist attacks? No. Strike three."

I'm sorry TruthIsAll, these numbers are interesting, but they do not prove anything at all. A history of Bush's poll numbers do not tell us what will happen going forward. You simply can't look at past poll numbers and assume the trendline will continue.

"He is universally despised."

No, his isn't. Bush is despised by many, but he is not universally despised, and he will most surely win far more than his "freeper base". Bush is almost certain to get 45%+ of the vote - that is not a person who is universally despised. The fact that you think this tells me you've been spending far too much time associating with only those whom agree with you.

"And Larry Flynt along with others have yet to be heard."

I don't believe Larry Flynt has squat. I really do hope your not counting on him. Even if Larry Flynt comes up with something on Bush, the very fact that it is coming from Larry Flynt makes it fairly easy for the press to ignore it. If Flynt has anything at all, he'd need to release it very soon for it to have any impact at all on the election.

TruthIsAll, your still not factoring in what the media will find on Kerry. Your still not considering all the bad press Kerry is going to have. And it is almost as if your assuming the majority of the American people are going to agree with Kerry's positions on issues more than Bush's.

You can not analyze an upcoming election by only looking at one candidates negatives. You simply can not do that. How can you be so sure that the public will generally be sour on Bush, but simply dislike Kerry enough by the end of the campaign that a majority will vote for Bush anyway.

"You are entitled to your opinion. Just don't call me naive. I have been following elections closely since 1952. I will match my knowledge against yours on issues, numbers and trends in every election since then."

Yes, we are both entitled to our opinions, but I do believe your being naive. If you really follow elections closely you would know never, ever to say a candidate can "never" recover. Further, I think your analysis is so full of holes that it is almost useless for much other than entertainment value.

Imajika
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 01:45 AM
Response to Reply #24
29. Imajika, you're right. Bush CAN recover: If Diebold steals it for him..
Edited on Sun Feb-29-04 01:46 AM by TruthIsAll
That's the only way he can win.

Its simple math.

Gore got more votes than Bush in 2000.

More Bush voters will vote for Kerry than Gore voters will for Bush.

The Dems will be energized as never before.

So...guess what, Kerry wins - unless the election is stolen in Cyberspace - a possibility.

BUSH CANNOT WIN A FAIR ELECTION. DO THE MATH.

B
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I
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Imajika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #29
49. No TruthIsAll, that is just the excuse...
Edited on Sun Feb-29-04 11:06 AM by Imajika
...you will use in the event that your wrong about the coming election.

"Imajika, you're right. Bush CAN recover: If Diebold steals it for him.."

The Diebold/BBV conspiracies primarily exist, and get so much play here on DU, precisely because of unrealistic election predictions caused by a fundamental lack of understanding of where the American public stands on issues and how they are likely to vote in elections. Making bad predictions and working with poor assumptions prior to elections, combined with an unwillingness to face the cold hard facts that the majority of voters just might not be with us, is exactly what leads to all these BBV/Diebold conspiracies.

"Its simple math.

Gore got more votes than Bush in 2000.

More Bush voters will vote for Kerry than Gore voters will for Bush."

This is about the most simplistic, utterly wrongheaded, and downright foolish analysis I've ever seen.

You are assuming that the exact same participants whom voted in 2000 will be voting in 2004. It does not work that way. The electorate can change significantly from election to election. The turnout will not be static. The Bush campaign could potentially add millions of evangelical christians who sat out the last election. The dynamics of the campaign could go badly for Kerry - leaving a majority of the electorates moderates generally disliking Bush, but unwilling to vote for Kerry. New young voters may lean Republican. World and national events could turn the electoral dynamics on its head. The list of variables is just too lengthy to list here.

"The Dems will be energized as never before."

This appears to be true, but if the GOP paints Kerry as a dangerous leftist it could result in the Republicans being energized as never before as well.

"So...guess what, Kerry wins - unless the election is stolen in Cyberspace - a possibility."

Yes, this is what the excuse will be if your assessment is wrong. I can visualize what will happen now - it will be rather like after the 2002 fiasco. Most of DU was predicting Democratic victories and an utter repudiation of Bush. Some, more realist voices, were warning against this overconfidence - but too many declined to heed the warnings. If Bush wins in November, you and many others will refuse to admit your analysis was goofy and wrong - instead BBV/Diebold conspiracies will run wild and account for huge numbers of posts on the forum. Instead of taking a serious look at why the election turned out as it did, and working towards a better electoral strategy going forward, huge amounts of time will be wasted blaming it all on hairbrain BBV/Diebold conspiracies, which no one other than the tinfoil hatters and political forum junkies will take seriously until real evidence showing Republicans stealing elections is presented - I'm betting that will never happen simply because I don't believe it is.

"BUSH CANNOT WIN A FAIR ELECTION. DO THE MATH."

Wrong. Bush can win a fair election. He hasn't yet, but he could. It is simply way too early to predict how the voting will go in November. Just look at the surprises in the Democratic primary. Who would have the thought the Dean train would derail as it did? The why doesn't matter, what matters is that it happened and took everyone by surprise. Kerry came out of nowhere, here was a guy way down in the polls and looking dead in the water, and suddenly he is the likely nominee. How many thought back in November and December that this would be the case?

The point is, anything can happen. Any analysis that says one mainstream candidate or the other can't win is just wrongheaded and naive.

Imajika

PS - I realize my posts are a bit combative, but I believe it important to gaurd against overconfidence. I've seen you post a lot of these "Bush is toast" threads, and I've had the time and energy to respond to this one. You may indeed turn out to be completely correct, in which case I will absolutely more than happy to concede you analysis was correct and mine was wrong. I do not mind admitting my mistakes. I must tell you though, I believe this election may be razor-thin close, and if one or the other candidate manages to break away and win by a larger margin - I am afraid that candidate is much more likely to be Bush.

edited for spelling and to add comments
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #49
57. Imajika, do you know about....
Edited on Sun Feb-29-04 12:19 PM by TruthIsAll
Do you know about Volusia county 2000? 16,000 Gore votes lost.

Do you know about Georgia 2002? 22,000 machines patched the last weekend.

Do you know about Republican opposition to voter verified paper trails?

Do you know about voting disenfranchisement of 95,000 Florida blacks in 2000?

Do you know about Wally O'Dell, CEO of Diebold, pledging to win Ohio for Bush?

Do you know about Teresa LePore, inventor of the butterfly ballot?

Do you know about 110,000 Florida overvotes, 75,000 of which were for Gore?

Do you know about the the least three Presidential elections, in which the Democratic candidates got 127 million votes to the Republican 113 million (that's 52.6%)

Do you know all that?

Or are you just going to continue to blow smoke?

Imajika, you never met a coincidence theory you didn't like.
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juajen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 01:32 AM
Response to Reply #17
27. Last time I checked, I was an American
You're presumptuous in the extreme. I even know some republicans in my circle of friends who are upset over these things you denigrate, and are not voting for him because of them.

When you speak in generalities, you lose credibility yourself.
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Stephanie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 02:14 AM
Response to Reply #17
30. re: AWOL: "as a national media story I suspect it is pretty much done"
I wonder why you are so quick to dismiss Bush's miserable failures and his deceits and lies, most particularly the case of Valerie Plame. There WILL BE indictments in that case. It was a DESPICABLE ACT to come out of our White House. I can't think of anything to match it. The judicial process is underway, the grand jury is in session, witnesses have been interviewed, names have been named. It is incomprehensible to me that you dismiss this threat to Bush. His administration (Cheney) has compromised our National Security and BETRAYED an American intelligence agent. There will be indictments, a trial, and penalties. No doubt.

As for AWOL, from the NYT, day before yesterday:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/27/opinion/27SWAR.html

OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
In Search of the President's Missing Years
By MIMI SWARTZ

Published: February 27, 2004

<snip>

What journalists had in the way of a paper trail led to suspicions that Mr. Bush's military record had been altered in preparation for a presidential bid something that James Moore, the reporter who asked the Vietnam question in the 1994 governor's debate, suggests in a forthcoming book. Also, many people who were chatty in 1994 clammed up in 2000, perhaps fearful that they would alienate the future president or his famously long-memoried family. Without conclusive documentation or an attributable source, most reporters were stymied.

It took Walter Robinson of The Boston Globe to look at Mr. Bush's file with a fresh eye; Mr. Robinson was the first to report, in May 2000, that Mr. Bush did not perform flight drills while in Alabama, and that the commander of the Alabama unit didn't remember him showing up for duty. But even that story was soon eclipsed by others in the heat of the campaign, most notably the revelation, late in the game, that Mr. Bush had been arrested in 1976 for driving under the influence. The issues surrounding his military service disappeared for another four years.

In some ways, then, the president is right: questions about his military service have been raised every time he's run for office. But it's also true that the story still seems woefully incomplete and that there have been clear inconsistencies in the answers Mr. Bush and his associates have given about his time in the Guard. (Mr. Bush's associates said that he didn't take his 1972 military physical because his doctor in Houston was unavailable and that he lost his flight status because the plane he was training on was phased out statements that have been shown to be debatable at best.) It's also disconcerting that each election cycle comes with a new set of "complete" documents.

Perhaps 2004 will be the year that details of George W. Bush's time in the National Guard indeed, his life in the early 1970's finally get filled in. This time around, there are certain factors that might put added pressure on reporters, editors and news organizations to complete the story. After all, the questions about Mr. Bush's service are being raised while we are at war and while the president is facing a genuine war hero as a potential opponent. Maybe this year, 10 years after Mr. Bush's first political victory, the lingering questions will finally disappear.
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belle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 04:08 AM
Response to Reply #17
35. In other words, just like last time, is what you're saying.
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MarkTwain Donating Member (902 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 07:26 AM
Response to Reply #17
38. "Critical Mass," "Free-Fall" ....
Edited on Sun Feb-29-04 07:32 AM by MarkTwain
...."Death Spiral." Oh please .... hardly.

Your points, Imajika, are very insightful and right on target. Thanks for taking the time to offer a sermon to a choir which, however, wants only to preach to itself.

It happens a lot here at DU. See "Howard Dean" as but one example.

Your points are well developed, germane, and should be taken very seriously by anyone who wants this filthy Cabal out of the office which they stole.

We - and most especially the Democratic nominees - would be well advised to study and appreciate the multiple posts which define your analysis against any sense of confidence at this point so early in the process and against such an evil and well financed group of thugs.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #38
58. Just look at the monthly stats...Bush has dropped 1.2%/month
Critical mass and free-fall are just what we are seeing. Open your eyes.

No one is saying that anything is locked. What I am saying is that we must keep the pressure on. I have been saying this for three years.

The 8-poll monthly numerical summary is a guide as to the Rove-manufactured attempts to prop up Bush - with the help of the media, of course. I pointed out the three times he went up in the polls.
Each time he gets a smaller bounce. The numbers tell the story. Ignore them at your peril.

The people are waking up. Give them some credit. We have become a media force. There are more Net surfers than MSN cable viewers. More and more people are getting the TRUTH from the Net every day.

We can and should expect a desperate Rove to do something very soon, as Bush has fallen to his low point. The fact is, if Bush cannot reverse the trend or halt the bleeding, he is TOAST.

It is important to be aware of what has been accomplished. The "very popular war president" has been exposed for the fraud he is. More than half of the people see this fact. Its been a long, steady drop from 9/11: from 86% to 50%: over one percentage point a month. Hopefully, with an accelerating decline, he will be well under 40% come November, OBL or no OBL.

Now, TomPaine, do you disagree with that?
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Stephanie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 01:34 AM
Response to Reply #11
28. Bush is a Fraud
I think it's common knowledge now.

Bush is a Fraud.

He can't get his credibility back now that he's lost it. He didn't lie just about the war. He has lied about EVERY SINGLE thing he's ever done - WMDs, 9/11, NCLB, Mission Accomplished, AWOL.

Americans are media savvy. We spend a big part of our day consuming entertainment and we know when an actor is phony and faking it. Bush can't get away with it any more. Because everyone knows that Bush is a Fraud.

He Betrayed our Trust about Iraq. He Betrayed his Oath to protect and defend American when he ignored the warnings about 9/11. He Betrayed our own National Security Agent - Valerie Plame. He Betrayed his Campaign Promise claiming to be a Compassionate Conservative.

I am convinced it is over for Bush. So long as we have an honest election.

Big IF.
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gristy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-28-04 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #7
13. I appreciate the caution from which your warning arises, but...
Edited on Sat Feb-28-04 11:05 PM by gristy
Bush has managed to "govern" in such a manner that he has left himself absolutely nothing on which he can run. And once he starts to campaign, this fact will only be clarified and amplified by the increasingly vocal left wing, by the Dem candidate (and his army), and by (in no small part) Air America Radio, the new liberal radio network.

My community can expect to hear Air America broadcasting loudly from my car with all the windows down at every intersection at which I come to a stop this summer and fall.
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Gman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #7
19. Bush his self is not campaigning
but his surrogates have been very hard at work. Bush's surrogates are the ones that do the dirty work, the slander, spread the lies, etc.

As far as Bush campaigning, I have no reason to believe the GOP will deviate from their 2000 plan to keep Bush from opening his mouth as much as possible. One thing they cannot do this year is lower expectations to the point that anything better than falling from tripping over his own tongue is a victory.
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 01:30 AM
Response to Reply #7
26. They could also ignore Kerry once he's cinched the primary. Media
ignores while pumping Bush could also be as disastrous or more so than attacks. In many ways, Gore's message was ignored while the media focused on his hair, clothes and weight.

This is what worries me. That Kerry will be ignored in message while attacked personally. It was a winning combination, they've been sucessful with it before, and like old dogs who can't learn new tricks they will just repeat and repeat the lies.

I am not as optimistic as the ever upbeat "Truth," and maybe not as down as Imajica but that's only because I think Blair's possible downfall could have reverberations over here. But, then I may be overly optimistic about Blair. He and Bush are joined at the hip so....who knows...
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West Coast Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 02:15 AM
Response to Reply #7
31. Apparently Bush's advisors expect to trail Kerry through the Summer
and only hope to even their poll numbers by the time the convention happens.
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belle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 04:06 AM
Response to Reply #7
34. When has Bush ever *not* been campaigning?
Point taken about polls--it is way too early to break out the champagne bottles--but to say that Bush & co haven't been fighting is just not true.
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Wapsie B Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 04:11 AM
Response to Reply #34
36. That's right.
He's been running for office ever since 9/11. Everytime one of them opens their mouth it's for the purpose of keeping them in power.
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Media_Lies_Daily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #7
46. Junior "hasn't been campaigning yet"?? Excuse me, but what do...
...you think he's been doing with all of the photo-ops over the last year? And the GOP fundraisers?

And for every negative you can think up about Kerry, Junior has far worse negatives in comparison. Sorry, that dog won't hunt either.

One more point, and it's a major one. Unless you've been sleeping under a barrel the last several months, the press is no longer universally supportive of Junior and the NeoCons. You seem to forget that the CIA has been running an operation known as Mockingbird since the late 1940s to install CIA operatives with every major news media outlet. You also seem to have forgotten that the CIA is highly pissed at Junior for "outing" one of the CIA's field agents and for attempting to blame the WMD fiasco solely on the CIA. Every time Junior and/or his goons have attempted to mount a media offensive over the last several months, it has been slapped down by very timely leaks and news stories refuting the NeoCons' assertions and casting major doubt on Junior's veracity and character. Where do you think those leaks have been coming from?
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magnolia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #7
56. I disagree with you 100%!
Edited on Sun Feb-29-04 12:17 PM by magnolia
Bush hasn't STOPPED campaigning! His whole term has been one big political campaign. There is nothing he has done from January 20, 2001 on....that wasn't directly related to re-election.

His recent SOTU was a campaign speech...did that bring his numbers up...no. His interview on MTP...campaigning again...did that help...no! He's recent speech to the governors where he tore into Kerry...did that spike his numbers...NO! Not 9/11...not the war...not the capture of Saddam...not even the rise in the stock market has kept his numbers up.

Voters hate negative campaigning. Millions of dollars worth of mud to sling at our candidate is not going to endear Bush to voters. Another terror attack would cause him to drop faster that an Acme safe.

Just a note on edit...I live in a very RW area of Virginia. I guess that would describle all of Virginia. I have been involved in many protests regarding development based on environmental issues. Hundreds of people fighting shopping centers and strip malls...studying the impact, the laws, etc. And then...guess what...they would all vote republican. The democratic party in my community used to have three members. These past few months something strange has been happening. The democratic party is growing by dozens every month...yes...monthly meetings and parties. It's trendy to be a democrat these days. I've been getting anti-Bush e-mails from people I never would have dreamed would send them to me. It's as if "wake up" serum has been put in our water system.
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Red State Rebel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #7
61. Finally another realistic person!
He hasn't even touched his campaign chest yet! Not to mention that Kerry and the other candidates have been in the news constantly for the past few months with the pre-primary and primary madness.

Anyone who thinks these polls mean anything when it comes to where things are going to be in 6 months is only fooling themselves.
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mlawson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 07:01 PM
Response to Reply #7
69. I agree with Imajika, as well. In AUGUST 1988, we thought
Poppy was toast, being behind Dukakis about 25 points. Actually, *most* Dems thought that; I never thought that Dukakis could possibly beat Poppy. But he sure as hell had a bandwagon...

Now, I am not saying that Kerry is Dukakis II. But we dare not forget 1988. Or especially, 1984 which I fear is the correct model for 2004.
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paulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 08:05 PM
Response to Reply #7
70. Normally I would match your cynicism
regarding the media and the American political process. But I think the David Kay/WMD thing has hurt Bush's credibility with the public. This is when his poll numbers really started falling. Perhaps a tipping point has been reached and the slide is for real this time.

I had an interesting experience last week - I was in Florida, visiting some relatives I hadn't seen since before Bush took office. There were six of them, from three different families. Understand, these are not "political" people. They get their news from the tv. They're mostly independent, if not conservative leaning. Around the dinner table talk turned to Bush, and I was surprised at the level of contempt focused on him. I mean REALLY surprised. One, a Vietnam vet who hasn't voted since 1968, announced that he had already registered and would definitely be voting against Bush this fall.

I know this is anecdotal, but perhaps a sea change is underway - the same kind of change that dropped Poppy's ratings into the thirties and swept him out of office twelve years ago.

One can hope?
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napi21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
22. Very interesting thread, and............
I agree it's far too soon to pop the wine corks. I also must tell you, I try not to engage in politics when I talk to anyone whose political views I don't know. But I have had a LOT of people state, just in passing comments, that they voted for Bush in 2000, but not this year! There are a variets of reasons; loss of jobs, jobs being exported (and the Pubs get balmed for that because of thier connetcion to corps), people dying in Iraq (for no reason), tax cuts, seniors unhappy with the medicare law, etc....

He really does seem to be in trouble. My concerns are that the typical campaign strategy of Rove is to blackball the opposition, with truths or lies...it doesn't matter. There are so many Americans who only pay attention to short snippits of information, a lot of times those things stick. I'm still not sure of how to stop that!

I still think we would have President McCain if it wasn't for those tactics, ana although you may not like hi either, things wouldn't be this bad.
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wellstone_democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 12:39 AM
Response to Original message
23. again this week?
will someone now post "drip, drip, drip" about *something* in the news

Excuse my blunt cynicism. Its been too long a road with this fraud of a man. I hope to hell you are right but I'll wait until he has those numbers a week before the election.
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harper Donating Member (699 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 01:12 AM
Response to Original message
25. I really hope you're right...but its early days yet
I'm not counting chickens yet. The dems are riding high now, but the republicans will get a big bounce from their convention. Hopefully the sight of Bush at Ground Zero will be so nauseating that won't pack the punch Rove intends. BUT...Bush has a shit load of money to spend, so I'm still worried.

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Merlin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 03:32 AM
Response to Original message
33. LISTEN UP NEWBIES: TruthIsAll has been predicting this for a year now.
A year ago when he said Bush would go down in flames, everybody on this board laughed their asses off.

Even six months ago, who would have thought for a moment that Bush was vulnerable. We were all sitting and steaming and stewing while Bush luxuriated in his media-protected bubble. But TruthIsAll--to my amazement--went right on predicting Bush was toast.

Now the bubble has burst, the blush is off the rose, the worm has turned, and all those other old shibboleths... And guess who--it turns out--has been right in his predictions so far all along.

TIA, you da man!

(But I'm still gonna fight like hell for our side in this election!)
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59millionmorons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 08:07 AM
Response to Reply #33
40. They don't get it
Some people don't get it yet. The distaste for Bush is smoldering like a brush fire. It is something that is popping up all over the place OH,NH,WV,NV etc. It's there were people feel there is a big credibility gap with Bush. You can only cry wolf so long until the sheep catch on. For Bush the sheep are catching on and he is finished. Kerry 304--Bush 234. Take it to the bank.
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Octafish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #33
53. Keep hammering, DU!
Bush is a CROOK!



And he deserves to be treated like one, which is more justice than he's ever extended to others.

Down with the BFEE!
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Beloved Citizen Donating Member (522 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #53
74. Neon Meat Dream of an Octafish!
Man, do I love Captain Beefheart!

Gimme dat harp boy
Ain't no fat man's toy!
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dusty64 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 08:38 AM
Response to Original message
41. I'd swear I saw his disapproval
numbers higher last year (around 47-48%). Whats up with that?
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snippy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 08:53 AM
Response to Original message
42. Bush is neither "toast" nor poised to win.
Too many people seem to think that current polls prove either that Bush can not win because his approval numbers keep declining or can not lose because he has taken the democrats' best shots and is still standing with tons of money yet to spend. Neither view makes sense.

This is not 2000 and Bush is an incumbent. Nearly every election involving an incumbent is a referendum on the incumbent. This election will be no different. It definitely will be a referendum on Bush. The three main issues likely will be the economy, Iraq, and Bush's incessant and compulsive lying. These issues may determine as many as 10 to 15 million votes. Those 10 to 15 million votes will preclude another close election.

The most important fact concerning the election is that since 9/11 Bush has been in a steady down trend with the occasional bump. Bush's decline in the polls is nothing other than the American people looking at and listening to Bush and realizing that he is an incompetent liar. Day by day and voter by voter, Bush himself is convincing the American people that he should not be president. If the trend since 9/11 continues, Bush will lose badly. If the trend reverses soon enough and strongly enough, Bush will win easily.

The amount of money Bush will have to spend is receiving a lot of attention but too much credit. In political campaigns, a lack of money is more important than an unlimited amount of money. The democratic nominee will have enough money to compete. Bush already has spent nearly $50 million yet his steady decline in the polls has continued. Remeber also that Bush had much more money than Gore in 2000. Money will not decide the election.

The economy and Iraq must improve between now and November for Bush to win. Between now and November Bush will be marginally hurt by the results of the Plame investigation and the lies Bush will tell about those results. Between now and November Bush will be marginally hurt by the results of the 9/11 investigation and the lies Bush will tell about those results. Between now and November Bush probably will be marginally hurt by other things as well. It also is true that the democratic nominee will be hurt by many things between now and November, but that will not change the fact that the election will be a referendum on Bush.

Between now and November Bush will continue to lie at every opportunity about every subject on which he speaks. Between now and November, Bush will continue to demonstrate his incompetence. Between now and November Bush will continue to demonstrate his Fecal Midas Touch. Between now and November Bush can benefit only from what happens to the economy and Iraq. Those issues may or may not change the trend for Bush and will decide the election. If there is no positive change on those issues, Bush will lose.
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Voltaire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 10:04 AM
Response to Original message
44. The polls are encouraging
But I do not know if phrases like "Death Spiral" and "Toast" are helpful at this point. The campaign against these thugs has to be run as if we are the underdog...never never never never never get complacent and take these criminals for granted. I like our chances but we have to keep working like the devil. I will not be convinced he is "Toast" until I see him on AF2 jetting his way back to Crawford on January 20, 2005
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ramapo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
54. So what! The propaganda machine hasn't kicked in
The polls are meaningless. There is absolutely no room for taking comfort in these numbers.

Over the coming months the Republicans will unleash an unprecedented campaign backed by $200 Million.

We will see what happens to the polls then.

My advice is get out your checkbook and send money to the Democratic nominee. It will be sorely needed.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #54
60. The Rove propaganda machine has been running daily for 3 years..
Edited on Sun Feb-29-04 12:55 PM by TruthIsAll
And look where it got them. They are losing in landslide proporations to a Dem who has not even been nominated yet. What makes you think there are any rabbits left to be pulled out of the hat?

Look, the people are learning more every day about what a fraud these guys are. They are not going back to Bush. That should be obvious. Even if jobs open up, who will forget the pain of the last three years? Do you think the 9/11 victims will go away? Or Joe Wilson? Or Ellen Mariani? Or CIA? Or military in Iraq? Or the dead and wounded Iraq soldier's families? Or uninsured? Or outsourced workers? Howard Stern followers?

Can't you see the desperation? Gay marriage amendment? Give me a break.

Rove vs. Wade? Larry Flynt has a story to tell.

AWOL? The story is not dead; if anything, the next set of revelations will sink Bush. Just what was he doing during those missing months?

Let them advertise with their $200 million. Let them come out of their holes to pitch their slime and bile. Let them.

It will only take them down further.
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Beloved Citizen Donating Member (522 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #60
67. Look at what Rove threw at Kerry in the last month!
Botox, the Liar Drudge purported affair, accusations of cowardice in Vietnam, and the forged Fonda pictures. Not to mention what was done to Max Cleland by Satan's Barbie Ann Coulter.

Look at it this way, the Bush campaign raised $150 million in the last year or so. They're now down to $97 million with Shrub hitting the road again to whore for more.

Where'd it all go?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 06:50 PM
Response to Reply #67
68. Good points. And something tells me that Repukes are
not going to be so generous from now on.

No one likes to back a loser. These guys may just cover their bets and give some to Kerry.
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Victimerican Donating Member (67 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-01-04 05:23 AM
Response to Reply #54
76. Just don't stop fighting!
"There is absolutely no room for taking comfort in these numbers."

Exactly, but I'd go a step further: I don't care if the polls are 100% unnamed Democratic Candidate vs. 0% Bush. I don't want us to get confortable in ANY numbers. Because if we get comfortable, when Bush's hundreds of millions of dollars in ad money kicks in, he may very well just buy his way into a second term. The only time I'm going to get comfortable is AFTER the election. Until then, I'm going to treat it as Bush being 1 vote ahead of the candidate, and it is up to me to get that 1 voter to switch back.
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Mayberry Machiavelli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-01-04 09:29 PM
Response to Reply #76
79. Welcome to DU!
And I agree with you. I feel we are in good shape, but even if the polls were 80/20 Dem until NOV I'll feel nervous until these crooks are out of office.
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tedoll78 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 11:37 AM
Response to Original message
55. While I think it's too early..
I also think that we're in great shape, considering how potentially divisive the primaries could've been.

I also think we've been given tons of campaign material for Fall from the administration itself. Outsourcing is a good thing?! Cut S.S. benefits? This stuff is mana from heaven!

I also take heart in this. We're about to enter March, and our theoretical ticket of Kerry-Edwards is leading Bush-Cheney by significant margins in many polls. For past election years, this hasn't been the case with incumbents who won election again. LEt's hope that tradition continues.

My personal hope is that Bush has alienated the population bloc-by-bloc in terms of voting. Gay conservatives? Maybe half of them will vote for him. Americans of middle-eastern descent? 90% will go for US this time instead of them. Veterans & their families? Maybe not getting will make them actually think in the voting booth. And so on..
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alittlelark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
59. Wonder what will happen when Fahrenheit 911 comes out?
Moore's movie is certain to have some effect.:evilgrin:
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Beloved Citizen Donating Member (522 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 05:25 PM
Response to Original message
65. Barron's Online: Why the President May Be Running Scared
Bush could very well lose. And even conservative business publications like Barron's are talking about it.

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=7778
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Beloved Citizen Donating Member (522 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 05:34 PM
Response to Original message
66. NY Times: Bush Strategists Now Expect to Trail Kerry...
From the article:

"The confident face put on by the Bush campaign belies some anxiety in the Republican ranks. Most national polls for the last several weeks have shown Mr. Kerry leading Mr. Bush in a head-to-head match up. At this point in his 1996 re-election race, Mr. Clinton was way ahead of Mr. Dole, and never gave up that lead. President Ronald Reagan had established a double-digit lead over Walter Mondale by this point in 1984."

http://www.NYTimes.com/2004/02/29/politics/campaign/29BUSH.html



America is getting ready to Fire The Liar.
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Ksec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 08:15 PM
Response to Original message
71. The Propaganda machine will be starting this week
in full glory. I heard a newsman say that the ads will be starting this coming week . Look out.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #71
72. Oh, oh... I suppose we should be quaking in our boots..
Anything BushCo says or does from now on is a joke. He's the most miserable failure EVER for a pResident.

The ads will just make it more obvious.
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sendero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-29-04 08:48 PM
Response to Reply #72
73. There is no question....
... in my mind that ads and messages that will work when you have the basic trust of people can backfire when you don't. I think Bush* has lost the basic trust of a lot of people.

Not his base of course, he could do anything or say anything and not lose them. They will always be with us but they don't matter because now there is a 30% minimum Dem base too :)

When your message is regarded with suspicion it is not an article of faith that your message will be successful in changing hearts and minds.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-01-04 08:26 PM
Response to Original message
77. History tells us that an incumbent this low at this date is toast...
Buhs is medium-brown right now...

He will be dark brown next month..

And burnt, black toast come the summer...

No one likes burnt, black toast...You must throw it out..
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BabsSong Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-01-04 08:37 PM
Response to Original message
78. Something in my local newspaper
Just when I get pumped there is always something that creeps in and it was a little article in my hometown newspaper from the AP showing a national poll. And this says it all to me as the chill starts creeping up the spine. It was in reference to gay marriage. It showed a national poll of months ago where the idea of an amendment had an overwhelming "no" response. The recent poll showed the "no" losing a point below the "yes". My point is that I thought that his announcement would cheer his base but make the rest of the country sick because of all their problems and this is all this moron can dwell on. It showed me the power still there of this sick, lying fool standing before a mike and spewing something. It's kind of like him and the plastic turkey. In a word, if they can flip like this over just a statement by him, what the hell are we facing when he decends with his 200 million war chest. I couldn't believe that many people could suck up what this sick creep spews and agree with him.
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