What do you know about the economic "CES Net Birth/Death Model?"

[Eric J in MN]

I've read some criticism that the "CES Net Birth/Death Model" is being used to rig the job-figures from the Labor Dept.

But when did it start?

How easily can it be fudged?

[Career Prole]

1. You probably saw the same article I did...but just in case

here it is again.:)

From http://www.nypost.com/business/22197.htm

Included in whatever figure is released tomorrow will be jobs that the government actually counts through its employer surveys, adjustments for the seasons, and jobs that the Labor Department thinks are being created by new companies it hasn't yet reached in its polls.

The big surprise could come in that last category — invisible new companies. The Labor Department calls this calculation its CES Net Birth/Death Model. (http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm)

The effect of this estimate can be big.
When the government announced that 288,000 jobs were created this past April, for instance, that figure included a whopping 270,000 jobs that the Labor Department estimated — but couldn't prove — had been created by new companies.

Without those estimated jobs from new businesses, growth would have been minuscule and more in line with the mood that workers are expressing in private surveys.

There's the extent of my knowledge on the subject...sorry!

[Eric J in MN]

2. Yes. Why is that NY Post reporter the only one askng these

Yes. Why is that NY Post reporter the only one askng these questions?

I give that reporter, John Crudele, credit, but I'd also like to know:

What do Paul Krugman and Robert Reisch think of the CES Net Birth/Death Model?

How long has it been used?

NOTE TO DUers:

If Paul Krugman or Robert Reisch appear on a callin-show, please call in to ask them what they think of the "CES Net Birth/Death Model."

[Career Prole]

3. Imaginary jobs for all my imaginary friends...the economy is booming

in bush*'s imagination.