There's still a year left!

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

I've been reading a lot of tonight's posts and the general mood seems pretty grim around here. The main factor seems to be the economic news that was released today in the news, that there was record growth this quarter.

If that translates into jobs, then we definitely have our work cut out for us. However, regardless, everyone really needs to keep in mind that we have a year until the presidential election. Now is the time to start getting our act together and to try and unite to defeat Bush.

I am as worried as anybody about the idea of four more years of a Bush presidency. However, I think it's very important that we not let ourselves become disheartened and apathetic. Think about where we were one year ago. Bush's re-election was a foregone conclusion, and to think that his approval rating would drop to where it is now was unthinkable at the time. A year is a very long time, and a lot can happen between now and then. I'm not saying rest easy --- just don't let yourselves be defeated a year before the election.

I am a very proud Dean supporter, but I will put myself 100% behind whoever the nominee of our party is. I plan to volunteer and donate money and time, and I plan to see this through because the stakes are just too high. I hope everyone else here feels the same way and has the same plans.

[Mz Pip]

1. Too soon to tell

Economic recovery is a good thing, but jobs are still a big issue.

There is so much wrong with the Bush pResidency that if people start paying attention even an upswing in the economy won't help. Bush is a disaster on a global scale. It's more than just the US here. The American PResident is supposed to be the leader of the free world. Pretty tough to do when 80% of the planet hates you.

MzPip
:dem:

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

3. I agree with you 100%

Economic recovery does not necessarily equal job recovery. I have a sneaking suspicion anyway that the people who benefit the most from this uptick in our nation's economic picture are not, say, unemployed steel workers, for example.

I still believe that the Iraq situation will have a slowly but surely corrosive effect on the Bush administration's credibility, and a lot of people overlook the fact that, regardless of everything that's going on, the country is split 50-50 on partisan lines, and it doesn't take much to tip the scales in one direction or the other.

In any event, if we as Democrats just get our shit together and have enough party loyalty to vote intelligently then we will certainly have a fighting chance.

[jeter]

2. Dudes, listen - this means nothing

GDP is nothing. Joblessness, deficits, etc. This is what people understand. The economy grew by more than 6% for three straight quarters in the run up to the 1992 election. It didn't save the impression that Bush Sr. was a fucktard.

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

4. I'm not concerned about today's news at all

Pretty much for all the reasons you gave. People also shouldn't underestimate Bush's ability to take a good situation and flush it spectacularly down the shitter. Who knows --- his hypothetical fucking up of this wonderful economic news may become yet another one of his failures that our eventual candidate can gleefully detail in debates and conventions.

[Frodo]

11. No it wasn't

Read today's NYTimes. The first quarter of substantial growth after the Bush recession was not until the 4th Quarter of 1992 (after Clinton was already elected) and wasn't known about until the following year. And that quarter was 5.5%. There were not three consecutive quarters of substantial growth reported prior to the election. And even with that 5.5% quarter, GDP growth for the entire year was a bit over 3%. Bush II's "good news" is starting a full year before pappy's did. If it really is the start of a real recovery? Start planning on who you want for 2008.

GDP is NOT "nothing". It's the single largest indicator of the health of the economy. People watch that, they watch the stock market, and they think about the likelihood that THEY will get laid off. The 6% who are unemployed will not decide the election. It's the other 94% who either "are" or "are not" worried about losing their job in the future who will decide it. Come June-July-August 2004 are we still seeing 4% GDP groth/quarter? Is inflation still under 2% or so? Has unemployment dropped .5%-1%? If the answer is "yes" we can pack our bags.

[jeter]

5. This is the response

So what if the economy grew by 7.2%. What difference does that make (After all, if the economy contracted by 7.2% would that be the leading line of the attack against him).

- There have been 2.5 million manufacturing jobs lost, and more than 3 million public sector jobs lost.

- There was a $250 billion surplus that was turned into a $400 billion deficit.

- wages have stagnated or fallen in most US states.

- the standard of living in the US has fallen.

- The American dollar has lost 30% of its value.

- The price of oil has gone from $12.00 to $32.00 per barrel, leading to higher gas and electricity costs.

- The price of food (never calculated in the inflation number) has risen by nearly 50%.

- The debt projection for the next ten years is $5.5 trillion.

- Pension funds have been depleted.

- Most states are in a state of emergency when it comes to their finances.

- Those who have no health insurance has risen to a record 48 million people. Including one-third of all children.

And all of this is off the top of my head. So let Bush brag about a 7.2% GDP number. Who the fuck cares. All those things I mentioned above is what people care about.

Does anyone actually believe that someone will sit around and say, "Jeez, I lost my job. I lost my insurance. I'm in debt up to my neck. My pension is gone. Food and energy prices are rising. But shit, at least the GDP grew at 7.2%."

Come on.

[Padraig18]

6. Precisely!

If they even know what GDP means, 99% of the voters will look at the OTHER indicators, which SUCK!

[onebigbadwulf]

7. Actually this boost

Will help us out. Next quarter, there were be an economic DROP equivalent to the RISE we saw today. And that DROP will have a much louder ressonance than this temporary gain.

Don't worry, or maybe we should all be more worried, that the economy is NOT getting better.

[knowledgeispower]

10. Great points, all of them

Thanks for cheering me up man.

[el_gato]

8. test t

test

[number six]

9. Agreed. I wrote an op-ed about it this morning - that died

a quick death! Oh well, here it is, if you like.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=623179