Please someone explain to me how these two reports can both be true.

[Better Today]

Honestly, if no one is questioning either one of them, both reported as facts, both for the same month....

What the hell? It just doesn't make sense to me how these two can be so disparate just two days apart.


Private Sector Cuts Jobs in March
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62U2CU20100331



Private Sector Hiring Lifts March Payrolls
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1715009520100402

[rfranklin]

1. (TOP) ADP uses actual payroll...(BOTTOM) Government makes up figures....

based on an algorithm.

[Better Today]

3. That's what I was feared of. So I guess that means today is the day to

ignore reality. Rah, Rah algorithms.

[rfranklin]

2. More info on magical job creation from the government...

This is a NY Post article from January 5, 2010

Why the Government Job Figures Don't Add Up

Friday's figure will also be altered by job growth that the Labor Department is pretending has occurred at newly formed companies. The department calls this its birth/death model and by itself this assumption could be more destructive to the US economy than any terrorist attack could ever be.

For instance, in December 2008 the Labor Department assumed that 60,000 jobs were created by infant companies that couldn't be surveyed, and weren't contacted, by its workers. Without that assumption, the job losses that month would have been worse than the almost incomprehensible figure of 681,000 that was publicly announced.

The trouble is, those extra 60,000 jobs don't exist.

In fact, the Labor Department has already said that when it reports its next set of statistics on Feb. 4 it will reduce the number of jobs that it believes existed in this country from April 2007 through March 2008 by around 820,000.



Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/why_the_government_job_figures_won_SF8z4SR9LG0at4gQjNj5eO#ixzz0mW4OdDSH

[Better Today]

5. Yes, thanks, I suspected based on the experiences of the past couple of

years trying to find employment, that the numbers have to be bogus.

The number of legitimate job postings over the past two months have been worse than any of the previous 46 months, down from about 15 a day for this area (those mostly in minimum wage home healthcare) to about 5.

[On the Road]

4. The 150,000 Gain in Jobs is a Net Number

which subtracts layoffs from new hires. Layoffs may have gone up, but hiring may have gone up even more.

Layoffs are more visible, since companies tend to announce large layoffs, and they appear the news. New hires are done more often at an individual level and are not as visible.

It would appear that the author of the first link read several recent layoff announcements and, trying to get a jump on the new unemployment numbers, incorrectly guessed that they would be worse than expected.

[Better Today]

6. Did you actually read the first link?

[On the Road]

7. Yes, But it Looks Like I Mirsead It

The numbers are for private payrolls. Per another thread, a lot of the increase was in census jobs, which would not have been included. Another big chunk was in temps -- don't know how those are reflected.

There are so many different ways to do it that it's not surprising that there are differences. Anecdotally, I do know in Baltimore there's been a noticeable uptick in working-class jobs recently.