Lots of guns = lots of preventable deaths. Here's an example.

[MannyGoldstein]

I just found some interesting figures that I'd like to share.

As most people know, my state of Massachusetts has perhaps the toughest gun laws in the country. Our good friends to the north, New Hampshire, take the opposite approach. For example, a co-worker who grew up in NH recently told me about the scene after his grandmother's death when the family haggled over who would get which gun (I recall she had six or so).

Turns out that Mass has roughly half the rate of firearms deaths compared to NH. MA is 3.1 per 100,000, vs 5.8 for NH (http://www.statemaster.com/graph/cri_mur_wit_fir-death-rate-per-100-000)

But it gets even more interesting.

According to http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/murder-rates-nationally-and-state

MA has three times the murder rate of NH, 2.6 per 100,000 vs. 0.8.

Putting the numbers together, and assuming that the bulk of non-murder deaths would not have happened if guns were not available, it indicates that:
- almost all the firearms deaths in MA are due to homicides.
- in NH, by contrast, about several people are killed with guns by accident for every one person killed on purpose.
- all told, twice as many people die by guns in NH than in MA.

I guess having lots of guns around results in a lot of accidental deaths.

Makes sense, but it's interesting to see that the statistics confirm it.

[sharesunited]

1. That's a great stat Manny! But get ready for the automobile death comparisons.

When you take intent and assault out of the equation, you will be bombarded by all kinds of unsafe product and unfit user stats.

[MannyGoldstein]

2. As it happens, Mass also has the safest roads in the country

http://www.statehealthfacts.org/comparemaptable.jsp?ind=118&cat=2

Pretty safe state. People are nice to each other, too.

[pipoman]

37. Really?

Pretty safe state.

It is apparently rather high on the list of most violent crime..16th highest IIRC.

[MannyGoldstein]

40. link please? nt

[pipoman]

42. I guess it is #18 with 457.1/100k

http://www.statehealthfacts.org/comparemaptable.jsp?ind=117&cat=2

DC is #1 w/1345.9. Of actual states Nevada is highest with 702.2. The lowest (#51) is Maine with 119.8, followed closely by Vermont at #50 with 131.4...Maine and Vermont are both high gun ownership states with relatively liberal firearms laws.

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

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[RSillsbee]

30. Certain posters

you know aren't going to be around long

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

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[lawodevolution]

34. SU I normally start with Mexico and Nigeria both places with much higher deaths from

violence yet 1/6th and 1/90th the gun possession rates respectivly to the average USA.

[Straw Man]

3. Could you explain your conclusions?

Your first chart lumps together all firearms deaths. This would include murder, suicide, accident, police shootings, self-defense... Any death by firearm.

Your second chart is raw data on murder, all murder, regardless of type of weapon.

How did you manage to draw conclusions about accidental firearms deaths from this data?

[MannyGoldstein]

4. You're mostly right - I'm assuming

that the vast bulk of non-murder firearms deaths would not occur if firearms were not present.

I've amended my post with that caveat.

Suicide is interesting, because one can argue that guns make it easier. As it turns out, NH has a 50% higher suicide rate than Mass - consistent with the hypothesis that "loose guns kill".

[sharesunited]

5. Nailed it again. Guns as chosen means of suicide.

You are on fire!

A convenient, impulsive and effective means guns are.

No need to pin a note reading Do Not Resuscitate on your shirt, for sure.

[MannyGoldstein]

8. Following the numbers is what I enjoy

I'm currently working on Social Security's numbers. Here's the punch line:

"Social Security is financially sound, and you're about to get robbed."

[Atypical Liberal]

12. You might enjoy this web site

http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/index.html

[pipoman]

39. If you enjoy the numbers, you should love this page

http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=kfa#419

These are actual stats compiled by the US Department of Justice.

[Straw Man]

6. Accidental deaths

I'm assuming that the vast bulk of firearms deaths are accidental

I wouldn't hang my hat on that assumption. I think you'll find that suicide is the largest single segment, but let us know what you find.

As it turns out, NH has a 50% higher suicide rate than Mass, probably in large part due to the guns, but that's a guess.

To make that more than a guess, you would have to find suicide stats broken down according to method.

[MannyGoldstein]

7. Firearms are responsible for most suicide deaths

http://www.suicide.org/suicide-statistics.html

[sharesunited]

15. Doesn't anyone have the skill or initiative to tie a rope anymore?

Seriously, the low tech is always there for the most timid and tentative.

[friendly_iconoclast]

19. How about a hibachi? Just yesterday in Massachusetts, as a matter of fact:

It's quite a common method in East Asia.

http://www.telegram.com/article/20110114/NEWS/110119780/1116

Mother charged with using hibachi in murder-suicide attempt


QUINCY — A woman was arraigned in a Boston hospital bed today on accusations that she killed her 8-year-old son and tried to commit suicide by lighting a hibachi grill inside a bedroom in their apartment.

Li Rong Zhang remained hospitalized under guard after she was ordered held without bail on a murder charge.

Li was arrested one day after her 16-year-old son found her and another son, Brandon Young, unconscious in their home in Quincy, south of Boston, authorities said. Firefighters who broke through a barricaded door into a second-floor room found the younger boy lying on the bed and his 39-year-old mother on the floor yesterday afternoon, Norfolk District Attorney Michael Morrissey said...

Obviously emboldened by the easy availability of charcoal, amirite?

[sharesunited]

22. Stories like this need to remind readers that CO-1 is a deadly gas.

A bunch of dudes in Fla killed themselves the other day not fully cognizant that a running auto engine can put you down.

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

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[Straw Man]

9. Huh?

I'm assuming that the vast bulk of non-murder firearms deaths would not occur if firearms were not present.

Yes, it's safe to say that no firearms deaths can occur without a firearm present. Is that what you meant to say?

You still have a conclusion about accidental deaths in your OP. None of your data is about accidental death. I still don't see how you can support that conclusion.

[MannyGoldstein]

10. You're misreading what I (awkwardly) wrote

I'm assuming that, for the most part, that:
- in the gun case of deaths other than murders
- if the gun had not been easy to obtain
- the death wouldn't have happened (i.e., by another method other than by gun).

[Straw Man]

13. It depends.

I'm assuming that, for the most part, that:
- in the gun case of deaths other than murders
- if the gun had not been easy to obtain
- the death wouldn't have happened (i.e., by another method other than by gun).

If we're talking about firearms accidents, clearly the presence of the gun is the sine qua non. It's much harder to make that case with suicide. There are many ways to kill oneself, either with deliberation or impulsively.

Again, I have to ask: How do you draw any conclusions about accidental death using data that doesn't mention accidental death?

[krispos42]

17. Yet other countries with low gun ownership rates also have higher suicide rates.

Have some fun on nationmaster.com one day


Two states does not make a sample.

[friendly_iconoclast]

24. Most notably Japan and some European countries n/t

[friendly_iconoclast]

26. Found it- the suicide rates of OECD (rich) countries. The US is 19th out of 33:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_suicide_rate


Suicides per 100,000 people per year: Rank , Country, Year of Data, Males, Females, Total
1. Japan 2007 35.8 13.7 24.4
2. South Korea 2006 29.6 14.1 21.9
3. Hungary 2008 37.1 8.6 21.5
4. Slovenia 2008 32.1 7.9 19.8
5. Finland 2007 28.9 9.0 18.8
6. Belgium 1999 27.2 9.5 18.2
7. Switzerland 2006 23.5 11.7 17.5
8. France 2006 25.5 9.0 17.0
9. Austria 2007 23.8 7.4 15.4
10. Poland 2006 26.8 4.4 15.2
11. Czech Republic 2007 22.7 4.3 13.3
12. New Zealand 2007 20.3 6.5 13.2
13. Sweden 2006 18.1 8.3 13.2
14. Slovakia 2005 22.3 3.4 12.6
15. Iceland 2007 18.9 4.6 11.9
16. Canada 2005 17.9 5.4 11.6
17. Portugal 2004 17.9 5.5 11.5
18. Norway 2006 16.8 6.0 11.4
19. United States 2005 17.7 4.5 11.1

[lawodevolution]

36. many of the countries listed above Japan have total gun bans also

[friendly_iconoclast]

21. And progressive Vermont has almost double the suicide rate of MA

The latest figures I could find are from 2007

http://www.afsp.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=home.viewpage&page_id=05114FBE-E445-7831-F0C1494E2FADB8EA

Mission and History
Mission
The American Foundation for Suicide Prevention (AFSP) is the leading national not-for-profit organization exclusively dedicated to understanding and preventing suicide through research, education and advocacy, and to reaching out to people with mental disorders and those impacted by suicide.

15 Vermont 89 620,748 14.3
29 New Hampshire 158 1,312,256 12.0
47 Massachusetts 516 6,467,915 8.0

[X_Digger]

23. NH's non-gun suicide rate is higher than MA as well..

http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate10_sy.html

select 'suicide', 'non-firearm', group by 'state'

6.60 v. 6.19

[lawodevolution]

35. "NH has a 50% higher suicide rate than Mass - consistent with the hypothesis that "loose guns kill""

Rampant desire to commit suicide without help is what kills. In Japan they manage to kill themselves at a higher rate than our murder and suicide rate combined.

Japanese suicide rate 24.4

US suicide rate 11.1

This makes it very clear that guns are not responsible for suicide, it is the desire to commit suicide that causes it. Just because guns are used more for suicide in the USA does not mean that people would fail to use the other methods that the Japanese use in order to kill themselves if they couldn't get their hands on a gun.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate

[K8-EEE]

27. Pro Gun Stats.....

And lots of assuming.

[Atypical Liberal]

11. Accidental firearm deaths are at 100 year lows.

Violent firearm crime is at a 30 year low, and accidental firearm deaths are at a 100 year low. This in spite of record firearm and ammunition sales over the last 2 years.

[Straw Man]

14. A few things to keep in mind...

...in this discussion.

• Your first chart is from 2002. Therefore, the only data from your second chart that is relevant is the data from the same year. So we're talking about data that is almost ten years old.
  
  
• The stark fact remains that Massachusetts, despite having much more stringent gun control, still has three times the murder rate of New Hampshire.

[MannyGoldstein]

16. But half the rate of firearms deaths. And that's the basic point. nt

[Straw Man]

20. The basic point?

But half the rate of firearms deaths. And that's the basic point.

So your point is that firearms deaths are the only deaths that matter? That firearms deaths are the only deaths that are preventable? That a high murder rate is acceptable as long as there aren't a lot of firearms deaths?

[X_Digger]

18. Faulty premise(s)..

assuming that the bulk of non-murder deaths would not have happened if guns were not available

'non-murder deaths'... ie, accidents or suicides

If you want unintentional deaths, check the CDC's Wisqars..
http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate10_sy.html
Select 'unintentional.. 'firearm'.. group by 'state'..


New Hampshire.....0.042326675
Massachusetts.....0.086519253


MA has twice the rate of unintentional firearms deaths. (Of course we're talking about rather small numbers).

in NH, by contrast, about several people are killed with guns by accident for every one person killed on purpose.

In 2007? The number of unintentional deaths by firearm in NH? 1. In MA? 3.

The number of intentional homicides by firearm in NH that same year? 7. In MA? 114

(source: http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/data/table_20.html)

all told, twice as many people die by guns in NH than in MA.

Again, go back to WISQARS, 2007, this time 'all intents', 'firearm', group by 'state'..


New Hampshire...78
Massachusetts...235


eta: formatting

[Straw Man]

25. Faulty conclusions.

- almost all the firearms deaths in MA are due to homicides.

No, not at all. In 2002 (the relevant year, since it is what your first chart covers):

• 3.1 people per 100,000 were killed by firearms (including suicide, murder, accident, etc.)
  
• 2.8 people per 100,000 were murdered (by gun, knife, poison, strangulation, etc.)
  

These are two separate data sets. You have to break them out into their component subsets to draw any such conclusions, and when you do, you'll see your numbers are way off. For example, what percentage of the total firearms rate is from murder, what is from suicide, etc. Are you with me?

- in NH, by contrast, about several people are killed with guns by accident for every one person killed on purpose.

Again, your murder data is not broken out by means, and your firearms data is not broken out by intention, so this conclusion is faulty.

- all told, twice as many people die by guns in NH than in MA.

No. The rate is twice as high in NH, but all told, far more people die by firearms in MA than in NH. That is because MA is a much more populous state, not to mention that it has a much higher murder rate.

[PavePusher]

28. That made absolutely no fucking sense at all.

If you have an actual message, go back and do a full re-write, because you have failed to communicate anything.

[Callisto32]

33. Bullshit.

It results in NEGLIGENT killings.

Next thing we will have to hear about how they "go off."

This looks like nothing but another attempt to balm the object rather than the conscious actors.

[lawodevolution]

38. This was a good attempt Manny

you tried to use an honest method of pushing your argument rather than the deception, manipulation, lies and sensationalism we get 24/7 on here from the anti gun folk.

"Putting the numbers together, and assuming that the bulk of non-murder deaths would not have happened if guns were not available, it indicates that:"

You can't make this assumption because as we pointed out many countries in which people don't have easy access to firearms have higher suicide rates than the USA, such as Japan with more than double our suicide rate.

"in NH, by contrast, about several people are killed with guns by accident for every one person killed on purpose. "

You cannot pull out the accident rate from the total gun death rate minus murder rate. You also have to pull out the suicide rate as it was explained by a post

"I guess having lots of guns around results in a lot of accidental deaths."

I don't see this. I have seen an increase in the number of guns out in the hands of civilians and a reduction in gun accident rates.

Still in the end you noticed that Mass has very strict gun laws and a higher murder rate than NH with more relaxed gun laws and low murder rate, and the distances between NH and Mass are such that criminals can easily go to whichever state they want to commit a crime or murder. We have the same phenomenon here in El Paso/Juarez metro area in which Juarez with a gun ban has about 250 times higher murder and violence rate while El Paso with almost no gun restrictions has a low murder rate. For some reason El Paso has a higher suicide rate than juarez, but they say that people in poor countries are less suicidal for some reason.

[Straw Man]

41. It's worse than that...

You cannot pull out the accident rate from the total gun death rate minus murder rate. You also have to pull out the suicide rate as it was explained by a post

Manny is using the total murder rate, not the firearms murder rate. His conclusion is completely unsupportable by his data. Doing it his way, Manny would count a knife murder as a non-accidental gun death.