Lessons for Dean from North Dakota

[markus]

Just finished a quick overview of the District-by-District results, and there is some instructive inforformation there for Michigan and beyond (if there is a beyond).

Dean did well in Fargo and Grand Forks. But not well enough to compenstate for a very poor showing in rural areas of the state, or in the west.

The west is much more conservative than the Red River Valley, and includes a substantial population of socially conservative Catholics.

While not of a monolothic type with ethnic, Catholic Democrats of Michigan, it shows that Dean just didn't take hold with these voters.

If Dean is going to stay alive, he needs to find a way to connect with non-urban voters, and with more socially conservative Democrats. I think this is possibly more doable than growing his support in urban areas, given the Kerry tsunami we're all watching.

The other lesson: students make great volunteers, but don't count on them to vote. This is a truism many of us know, but which the Dean campaign continues to ignore. If every student who signed on with Generation Dean had shown up to vote, we at least would have stayed in the running and passed 15%.

This last thought is a bit more of a stretch, but I believe it's true. In discussions with people all day yesterday, I believe that Clark and Dean are splitting the anti-establishment vote (with Kucinich taking the rest: DK logged 3% in North Dakota).

As long as this continues, Dean and Clark are likely to fight to the death over the same (dwindling) pile of voters as Kerry solidifies his claim on the nomination.