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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:25 PM
Original message
Kerry now holds huge lead over Dean, poll of voters shows
ALBANY - Sen. John F. Kerry has taken a commanding lead among likely voters for New York's March 2 Democratic presidential primary, according to a statewide independent poll released Thursday.

The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute said Kerry is favored by 48 percent of likely Democratic voters. Trailing him are former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean at 10 percent, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina at 7 percent, Al Sharpton at 4 percent, and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 3 percent. Wesley K. Clark, who pulled out of the race Wednesday, is at 6 percent. Kerry leads Sharpton among black New York Democrats, 44 percent to 15 percent, in the poll.

New York's Democratic voters, by a 74 percent to 14 percent margin, feel domestic issues such as the economy are more important in determining how they vote than foreign policy concerns such as Iraq and the war on terrorism, the poll found. The telephone poll of 541 likely Democratic presidential primary voters was conducted Feb. 4-10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

<snip>

Meantime, Dean visited Wausau and Madison, linking Kerry and Edwards by calling them a pair of Washington insiders with weak claims to political courage or the mantle of reformers. A day after he told interviewers that Edwards would make a stronger nominee than Kerry because he has not served in the Senate long enough to absorb the Washington culture, Dean said the two are basically alike.

"They're good people," he said, "but they're from inside Washington. It's another world. It's not a world that has much relevance to ordinary Americans."

http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20040213/1031894.asp


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XanaDUer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:27 PM
Response to Original message
1. Kick!
:kick:
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:28 PM
Response to Original message
2. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
KFC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Very clever
I have give you big props for the "sheepel" lable. Have not heard that one before.

And "pavalav's dogs"! I just hope they don't shit on my lawn.
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Cheswick2.0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 10:47 PM
Response to Reply #2
18. yup makes you wonder what everyone was bitching about for the last 2 years
The media was a favorite topic of scorn for so long and then everyone just fell in line with the spin. Amazing mass hypnosis taking place.
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:37 PM
Response to Original message
3. Alternately: "Dean in 2nd place and moving up!"
I'm hoping (and working) for the possibility that Dean can outpace Kerry by the convention.

If not, I'll be happy to take my chances as a Dean supporter at a brokered convention. Let's see what a few months of front-runner status does to Kerry's "electibility".

It's all about spin (unfortunately) and Dean has a great chance to regroup here. The difference is that Dean's worst fundraising is about equal to Kerry's best...and it's because of the sheer number of contributors, not how well he caters to the $2000 donors.

At a brokered convention, I think the delegates will realize that Bush will tear Kerry apart (in terms of his votes on the IWR, NCLB and the Patriot Act) and that Dean has a great broad-based grassroots support network that will seriously diminish if they don't address it.

I'm comfortable...
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MurikanDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:42 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. What makes you think there will be a brokered convention?
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. I'm betting that Kerry won't have enough delegates by convention time.
Seems simple enough to me..
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. That would be great if we could actually bet on this stuff at DU
I be rich by now.

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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 10:03 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Maybe that's the last upgrade...online DU betting via an offshore site.
In any case, I'm already betting my money (in the form of contributions) and my heart (in the form of campaigning).

Again, we may disagree but that's fine. I think Kerry's frontrunner status right now is going to burn him.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #12
20. Of course
it will burn him. Thing is, Kerry can take the heat.

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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-14-04 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #20
26. Well, I don't think Kerry CAN take the heat.
That's my issue. I really don't think he has the positions (votes) to respond to anything other than "Thanks for your support" from Bush.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-14-04 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. Well events are proving you to be wrong.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:42 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. When your support is declining, it's usually not called 'moving up'
:eyes:
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Let's give Kerry a few weeks in the "limelight" and see what happens...
Yes, I'd rather Dean be the frontrunner now, but the Kerry thing is getting interesting. We're getting sex scandals after a couple of weeks...

...seems the worst anybody said about Dean was that he was "too liberal"...which he's obviously not.


From a strategic point of view, I'll be happy to let Kerry ride in the front seat for a while and take the shots. The worst they came up with about Dean was the "liberal" question and the "I Have a Scream" speech. Seems they've already cut Kerry deeper than that.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. In other words, yes, Dean's support is evaporating.

And you hope things change in the future.
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. No, Dean was ahead before media hits. Now's Kerry's turn.
...let's see how he does....
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Kahuna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-14-04 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #13
30. The difference is, the Dean stuff was actually true..
How dare the media show the video of Dean dissing the IA caucus! The nerve! How dare they show him insulting that freeper type who was asking Dean to show some charity toward bush! :wow:
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Nazgul35 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #5
24. so can we say he's peaking too soon...
:eyes:

how many Kerry supporters were shitting themselves in the three months before Iowa....

I wouldn't be so happy about Kerry's support either....most of it is soft....anything that comes along that makes Kerry look bad could dry up that support at the worst possible time....

And as far as Kerry being able to take the heat....he didn't fair so well from mid summer through to new year.....

If it wasn't for the media barrage and the Dean seeking Gephardt, I am sure all the Kerry supporters here would be talking about rallying around Edwards to stop the Dean train into Boston....

It is my fervent prayer that Kerry does well...because if his past is any indication, as soon as the primary is "over" he will revert to form...bland, wishy washy and start spouting DLC talking points to win that all important center....hopefully he won't miss that we are winning the center by being aggressive....
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Kahuna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-14-04 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #5
29. Are you sure about that.
}(

:P
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 09:53 PM
Response to Original message
11. I see a problem if the nomination is decided too early
And that is that Shrub will focus all his attacks on Kerry, and do his best to critically wound him (this could be done with lies and innuendo; I don't trust that crew). If there is a possibility, however remote, that Edwards could catch up with him, then Rove is kept a bit off balance-he must keep some of his dirty tricksters in reserve "just in case".

Another reason not to make this a coronation early is that the general public will start to become less interested. Kerry will have to spend some of his money on ads to stay in the news whereas if he's fighting Dean or Kucinich for delegates, he gets in the news for free. It will be interesting to see if voter turnout in the later primaries is as high as it was for IA and NH.

The third reason is that people like me, who will go to the primary in May, would like to still have a choice. I resent the fact that it always seems to be "wrapped up" before the Arkansas primary.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. I think you will be interested in this thread,
which links to an article about the subjects you are discussing: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=330714
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RedDawnRising Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 10:07 PM
Response to Original message
14. A poll of my friends and neighbors shows 0% Kerry support
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retyred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. And a poll of my friends and neighbors shows 0% dean support
Your point? :shrug:



retyred in fla
Good-Night Paul, Wherever You Are

So I read this book
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bowens43 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-14-04 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #14
33. So?
Numerous polls of Democrats and likely voters show him well ahead of any of the other Dems as well as being ahead of the idiot.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 10:44 PM
Response to Original message
17. In another super tueday state
Rhode Island, Kerry has an even larger lead:

2/12/2004

Kerry 70%

Edwards 11%

Dean 10%

Other 7%

Undecided 2%

Data Collected
2/11/04

Geography
State of Rhode Island

Sample Population
388 Likely Voters

Margin of Error
4.6%

Client
WLNE-TV Providence

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

In pledged delegates, Dean is now in last place of the major candidates and was behind Clark in these delegates:

But the delegates, that's what matters.

It takes 2,161 delegates to lock down the Democratic nomination for president at the convention in July. If you look at the numbers on Sunday morning, John Kerry has 320, compared to 136 for Howard Dean. If you look closely you'll see that most of Dean's delegates are "super delegates," political officials who operate outside of the primaries and caucuses, who gave their support to Dean back when he was the hottest ticket in town. But super delegates often change their minds. Of the pledged delegates, Dean is dead last among the four major candidates. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees has pulled its support of Dean, saying it'll hold out for the general election. But the unions haven't mattered too much so far, and Dean has pushed all of his markers into Wisconsin. He's hoping for a bounce.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/gate/archive/2004/02/13/campaigndiary.DTL

Now the AFL-CIO has set up a meeting for this coming Thursday to officially endorse Kerry:

AFL-CIO President John Sweeney scheduled a meeting of the federation's general board for next Thursday "to officially endorse" Kerry, according to the memo obtained by The Associated Press.


AFL-CIO spokeswoman Lane Windham confirmed that Sweeney will recommend the move. "But we're a democratic organization and it is ultimately up to the general board to decide who they will endorse," said spokeswoman Lane Windham.


The AFL-CIO, with a membership of 13 million is one of the key pillars of the Democratic Party, and an endorsement of Kerry signals the groups desire to unite behind a challenger to begin the campaign against President Bush (news - web sites) this fall.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040214/ap_on_el_pr/democrats&cid=536&ncid=536

The all the polls available fot the March Second Primaries have Kerry with huge leads. This was of course prior to Clark dropping out. We will have to see it this results in even larger polls for Kerry, particularly in Wisconsin where Clark had moved into low double digit pollng numbers in that state.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. Kerry's picking up steam.....Dean is losing it.
It's clear as the field is being culled, Dean is not the beneficiary of the votes at play.

No slam meant, just an observation.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. Kerry with 70% of Rhode Island is no surprise....
It's practically a suburb of Boston, is 90% Catholic, and full of the blue collar workers such as have been backing Kerry since Iowa.
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Kahuna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-14-04 03:03 PM
Response to Reply #17
32. 70%!
:wow:
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
21. Wow, looky there. They don't care about foreign policy
as much as domestic issues. But kerry's main appeal is to the liberals and those of us who are concerned about keeping social programs, and social programs cost money.

Hmmm, what to do, what to do, such a dilemma.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. ???
Edited on Fri Feb-13-04 11:45 PM by Feanorcurufinwe
I'm sorry, I'm not comprehending your point. Could you rephrase?

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Zomby Woof Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-13-04 11:53 PM
Response to Original message
25. the basic rule
When Dean was leading in December, the people were empowered and enlightened. When Dean fell behind, the people were sheeple and weak.

Uh yeah. Uh-huh. ;-)
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oasis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-14-04 11:14 AM
Response to Reply #25
28. ;-)
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