Have any state by state polls with Kerry and Edwards against Bush?

[fujiyama]

After all the national polls are somewhat meaningless. The way this is going, it may end up that the democratic once agains wins the popular vote and loses the EC. I see that as a real possibility.

[2004Donkeys]

1. Not when Kerry's up by 12

And I expect this lead to widen with peak oil being an issue.

[jmoss]

7. Edwards is from key Swing State

John Edwards has natural advantage over Kerry in taking on Repug's in the Tar Heel State. Many North Carolinians, with whom I have spoken, are registered Republicans who will proudly support John Edwards for President.

(Not a scientific answer, but relevant)

[goobergunch]

2. Yes

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/polls04.htm

[masshole]

4. NH will not go Republican

"Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me" is second only to "Live free or die" in New Hampshire.

Bush* won NH by 1% last time. Ain't happening again.

[thelocalkgb]

8. Um..

Am I the only one worried that California and New York are currently "too close to call" according to these polls?

[MurikanDemocrat]

9. That's gotta be bullshit

I don't believe that.

[thelocalkgb]

10. Well..

I think most polls are BS, but it is still a little worrisome.

[MurikanDemocrat]

11. I hear ya, but how can it be possible??

Bush is LOSING support, not gaining. How could there be such a DRASTIC swing in those two states? That's gotta be a Republican propaganda poll.

[thelocalkgb]

12. Who knows

It's all a little confusing, and most of the polls are out of date anyway. :shrug:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. What is the basis for that assessment?

No recent polls.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. Here's one, from PA

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has left the Democratic presidential pack in the dust in Pennsylvania and, in a head-to-head face-off, now leads President George W. Bush 50 – 45 percent among all voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

<snip>

Pennsylvania voters give President Bush a negative 47 – 49 percent approval rating, his lowest ever in the state and down from 53 – 43 percent December 17.

"The sharp decline in President Bush's approval rating in Pennsylvania is due in large part to the economy. Pennsylvania voters say the economy is the No. 1 issue in the presidential campaign and an overwhelming 67 percent describe the state's economy as "not so good" or "poor." Only 32 percent describe it as "excellent" or "good," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"For the first time a Democrat – John Kerry – is seen as beating Bush in Pennsylvania. That's a reflection of not only the economy, but politics. Kerry is riding the crest of an apparently easy ride to the Democratic nomination while Bush is stuck trying to explain whether he showed up for National Guard duty during the Vietnam war,” Richards added.

The economy is the most important presidential campaign issue, 36 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, followed by 19 percent who list health care, 14 percent who say terrorism, 13 percent who say Iraq, 7 percent who say taxes and 5 percent who say gay marriage.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10197.xml

No Edwards v Bush numbers, though.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

5. California

Is California looking like it will stay dem in 2004? I was playing around with the John Edwards electoral map thing and I can't see any way of taking the GE if we lose California. Kind of frightening.

[fujiyama]

6. I don't think...

we have to worry too much about Ca inspite of the Arnold win, which was more of an aberration because of his star power and the dislike of Davis.

I was looking at the map from the link above and I find it ridiculous to think NY state is "too close to call". I think the dem. candidate will win both of those states handilly.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. Yeah that map is WAY off.

[elperromagico]

16. You need an electoral map which utilizes far more polls.

One of the problems with that website is the real dearth of polls. Ideally, several polls from each state would be consulted. You wouldn't have any states that were marked "No Polls Available." I don't believe for a second that there aren't any polls available in half the states in the Union. What are they doing, sending their polls via the Pony Express?

[SangamonTaylor]

13. I wouldn't worry about CA

I'd worry about many of the other 'gore states' that were decided by such as slim margin.

[yellowcanine]

17. Or NY and NJ either

NY and NJ were huge Gore wins in 2000. The map above shows them as too close to call. That can't be right. If Kerry has to fight for those two states it will indeed be bad news in Nov. I think more likely is that Kerry takes most if not all of the Gore states and has a good shot at Ohio, W.Virginia, and N. Hampshire and that would probably win it for Mr. Kerry. I am not conceding Florida to Bush either. I think it will be another barnburner with slight edge to Kerry, given more highly motivated Dems and Kerry getting a greater share of the military vote and senior vote (pissed off about prescription drug costs).

[fujiyama]

18. Definetely....

those include Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin, which were particularly close.