If Elec. College is a 269-269 tie, then the Republicans will win 2004

[Bucky]

Bleachers7 in another thread points out how a 269-269 tie is possible. "If we win all the states from last time and pick up NH and WV, it's a draw."

Then he directs us to:
http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

Sadly, if such a tie comes to be, the Republicans have won the election for the next president... no SCOTUS required. The constitution says that if no one has a clear majority (50% plus one), then the House of Representatives votes. But they cast their ballots by state delegation with each state delegation getting one vote. This gives most of hte power to the party that tends to control small states. That would almost certainly be the Republicans next January.

Ugh.

[2004Donkeys]

1. You assume the House will remain Republican ...

But furthermore each state has one vote. So Texas will have 1/2 the voting power as South Dakota and North Dakota.

[mot78]

2. Thanks to DeLay and gerrymanderring the Repugs will control the House

until the 2010 Census at least.

[wuushew]

3. The electoral college takes place in December

So when would your newly elected House of Reps come into being?

[Bucky]

6. Important: Control of House does NOT mean we would win the Prez vote

As you point out, it's not who controls the House, but who controls a majority of state delegations. If you look at state delegations, I think you'll find that more have Republican majorities than the number with Democratic majorities. States like Hawaii and Arkansas, where the congressional delegation is equally divided, would end up forfeiting their vote.

If any southern states have a split delegation, the possibility exists that a Blue Dog/Boll Weavil Democrat could be induced to switching sides, thereby tipping an additional vote into Republican control.

Democratic seats tend to be concentrated in large states, NY, Calif, and Mass, for example. Such a vote in the current House would produce these results:

Republican: (31)
AL, AK, AZ, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KA, KY, LA, MI, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, OK, PA, SC, TX, UT, VA, WY

Democratic: (14)
CA, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, ND, OR, RI, TN, VT**, WA, WV

Split: (5)
AR, HI, MN, SD*, WI

(*South Dakota's sole House seat is currently vacant coz its Republican incumbent is a manslaughtering creep w/out an army to vent his hostility thru and thus must do his own dirty work)
(**Vermont's independent Representative would probably, in a pinch, vote for our guy)

[wuushew]

9. Would a split delegation follow the popular results of their state?

In the casting of their vote?

[Bucky]

11. They would have the option, but really they would just vote the party line

All Dem reps would vote for Kerry; all Rep reps would vote for Bush. Regardless of popular vote, no one would give up power if they didn't have to.

[MurikanDemocrat]

4. Odds are highly against a tie

[wuushew]

5. More likely than you think

Which Gore states are we in danger of losing? If none we start with 260 e.v.

Likely swing states that true tossups might include


FL(27),OH(20),MO(11),AZ(10),CO(9),LA(9),NV(5),WV(5),NH(4)

4 ways out of 511 total.

[Mairead]

7. Consider: there are many more combinations in which that does not happen

So why not focus on achieving one of them?

[dusty64]

8. I've thought of the

tie possibility as well. Now I think we will get enough states to keep this scenario from happening, assuming FAIR elections of course.

[Walt Starr]

10. Better read again

It's the current congress that would vote in December.

That meanns the Republicans win hands down because each state has a single vote.