From kos: Some interesting Iowa stats

[cali]

by kos
Sat Dec 29, 2007 at 03:27:17 PM PST
Jerome has compiled some pretty interesting data about Iowa:

Paid Staff:

Kerry '04: 120
Edwards '08: 175
Obama: 300
Clinton: 400

This is an incredible number of paid staff of Clinton. It's said that she's going to spend over $10M in Iowa, and this is a big chunk of it. The notion that a win by Clinton would be a "miracle" is pure spin. The extra 100-225 staffers spread out over the state gives Clinton an advantage over Edwards & Obama.
TV Advertising (in millions)

Kerry '04: $2.73
Edwards '08: $2.7
Obama: $8.3
Clinton: $6.5

Does Obama really get anything more from buying an extra $5 million plus in television ads in Iowa than Edwards? Dean sure didn't gain anything against Kerry. It puffed up his lead till the closing week, just like Obama's lead got puffed up, but then it went poof, just like what seems to be happening to Obama. You'll never hear the media complain about the amount of television ads though, it's their revenue.
And remember that unlike Edwards and Clinton, Obama is still working on a commission-based system that is seeing your campaign contributions to Obama dumped heavily into David Axelrod's pockets. That's $1 million to Obama's campaign manager and chief strategist from the Iowa media buys alone. Edwards and Clinton, by contrast, are paying their media consultants a flat fee.

So is it any shock that Obama's campaign is dramatically outspending the competition in airtime, rather than in beefing up their ground game to Clintonian levels? There's no profit in that for Obama's media team, which also happens to be its campaign strategists. Funny how that works, huh?

Days spent in Iowa

Kerry '04: 76
Edwards '08: 80
Obama: 78
Clinton: 66

Imagine this-- the myth that Edwards has lived in Iowa longer than the others this campaign just doesn't appear to be factually based. In fact, by historical standards, all the numbers are a bit low. During the 1988 campaign, Bruce Babbitt spent 118 days in Iowa, second to Dick Gephardt who spent 148 days there.
Given the polls that show the race tied, it's clear that Edwards is outperforming the field -- he has less paid staff, has spent significantly less in advertising, and yet is well within striking range of victory. What's that say about the other two campaigns?

<snip>

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/12/29/163224/35/469/427690

[iamjoy]

1. Edwards Said A Bunch Of BS

that's what it says.

When he signed the Four State Pledge, his campaign statement was:
“Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina need to be first because in these states ideas count, not just money."

Well, Hillary and Obama are spending the most money and they're ahead. Money matters, even in Iowa and New Hampshire. This old paradigm of voters "looking candidates in the eye and judging their worth" no longer holds.

[Andy823]

18. Wait till after the votes

I hate to break your bubble, but it's pretty much a "tie" in Iowa, so the fact that Obama and Clinton have spent so much "more" money, means nothing at the moment.

When the voters cast their votes, then we will see how much the money really counts.

[iamjoy]

24. Hey, I'm Bitter

I was an Edwards supporter. A part of me is still pulling for him. But, I'm in Florida see. Between our state legislature, state party and the DNC we're screwed this primary season. Then, the candidates added insult to injury with that damn Four State Pledge, basically deciding to ignore Florida in the primary season. NO campaign appearances.

The week after Edwards signed the Four State Pledge I get a phone call and an e-mail requesting money.

So, uh, yeah, I'm bitter.

[slick8790]

25. Hey, don't be mad at the candidates. Be mad at your state legislature and state party

for not even putting up token resistance to moving up a primary in direct violation of DNC rules they signed.

[iamjoy]

28. I'm Mad At Them Too

I just see it as insulting that as the candidate snubbed me for something that isn't my fault, he talked about how ideas count, not money. Then he turned around and asked me for money.

[Diane R]

27. You think you're bitter? Join the rest of the country who have no say.

[The Magistrate]

2. An Interesting Analysis, Ma'am

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."

[cali]

4. It is interesting to look at the nut and bolts part of

the race, Sir. And I actually find kos quite good on analysis.

[The Magistrate]

9. Nuts And Bolts, Ma'am, Are All that Is Of Interest, In My View

[BeyondGeography]

3. Edwards has been campaigning in Iowa since 2000

That's right; 2000. The mighty Kos left that little tidbit out.

[Adelante]

5. And Obama has to fight 527 ads

How'd he miss that one?

[Auntie Bush]

7. I was just gonna point out that little fact but, you beat me to it.

In fact I "hear" he moved there. Does anyone know if thats true? :shrug:

[maximusveritas]

10. Do you mean 2003?

I wasn't aware of him campaigning in Iowa before then.

[BeyondGeography]

14. from his wiki write-up..I see no reason to doubt it

==In 2000, Edwards unofficially began his presidential campaign when he began to seek speaking engagements in Iowa, the site of the nation's first party caucuses.==

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Edwards

[sandnsea]

6. Obama has 300 on the ground,

to Kerry's 120 - and you say he isn't beefing up his ground game?? Or is that Jerome's garbage and who is HE getting paid by again, I forget.

[cali]

8. I'm just posting kos here

not necessarily endorsing every word he wrote.

[goldcanyonaz]

11. I thought Edwards lived there. nt.

[asdjrocky]

12. I've been saying all along-

Edwards is running a smart, nearly flawless campaign, epically for the Iowa voters. I'd love to see data on the volunteers. If all goes well, I'm leaving tomorrow, and there are at least 6 more people I know who are going, or have gone. Not to mention the others, from all over the country, who have, or are making the trip. These are hard core, dedicated people who have been living this, and planing this for a year.

Another piece of information I've gotten from a trusted source in Iowa, while their staff out numbers ours, we beat the pants off of them in volunteers.

Thanks for bringing the info Cali, I haven't check in at Dailykos in a while.

[cali]

13. I actually thought of you, rocky, when

I read what kos wrote about JE. kos certainly seems to think that Edwards is running a top notch campaign in Iowa.

[asdjrocky]

17. For me-

Once I decided on Edwards, I started looking into volunteering. That was when I began meeting the most amazing and most dedicated volunteers and staff I had ever seen. And I worked on the Charlie Brown campaign, where we lost to Doolittle by only 3%. You'd have to know CaD4 to know what a big deal that was. The more I came to know the people supporting Edwards, the stronger my conviction became.

Again, thanks for the post Cal. And I like the necklace, no matter what anyone says.

[cali]

21. I have no idea what you're referring to

regarding "the necklace".

[asdjrocky]

22. So sorry-

I honestly thought that was the reason for your name and I was trying to be clever. Kali, is the actual spelling, and one of the things she is known for is her necklace of skulls.

Take a look, think you'll like my reasoning.

http://www.siamese-dream.com/page/siam1/CTGY/article-hindu-gods-kali

[Andy823]

19. That could be

Because he is! :evilgrin:

[laureloak]

16. Is that evidence of how Edwards would run the country? n/t

[asdjrocky]

20. I would hope it is. n/t

[DURHAM D]

15. Someone should dig up the earlier analysis of

staff/spending. I think it was done by the Des Moines Register. In the earlier months both Obama and Edwards had a lot more paid staff than Clinton. As I recall it was Edwards that had the most staff. The way he was able to do that was by pulling his campaign workers out of Nevada.


I remember thinking at that time that Obama could spend any amount of money that he wanted to because he had plenty and could think long term and it seemed very obvious that Edwards could not make it past South Carolina because he was going for broke in N.H. and Iowa. This was before he took public funding. Anyway, he has front loaded his entire race and I can't believe that he has been spared press coverage on the strategy.

[Catchawave]

23. Isn't this Jerome Armstrong's analysis Kos is analyzing ?

Pretty graphs here:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/12/28/223528/15

[Stop Cornyn]

26. Didn't know some of that.

[Stop Cornyn]

29. Does this mean that Hillary and Obama are spending about $350 per supporter in Iowa?