McClatchy-MSNBC Iowa poll: Edwards 24, Clinton 23, Obama 22

[maximusveritas]

http://www.thestate.com/local/story/270299.html
The new survey, taken Dec. 26-28, came three weeks after the initial Dec. 3-6 poll.

“On the Democratic side, the race is about as close as it can get, but keep an eye on Edwards,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. “Edwards has really moved up since our last poll. Obama and Clinton have each slipped a little bit.”

So 3 of the last 4 poll taken during the same period have shown a dead heat.
The ARG poll is clearly an outlier.
If these results hold up by the time of the caucus, Edwards will win.

[ruggerson]

1. If you look at the trendlines, Edwards is the one that's surging

n/t

[2hip]

2. I've been waiting for this shift in poll numbers

While Clinton and Obama have been the media darlings, Edwards has been working the state hard and his message is hitting home with the people past the M$M hype.




              Edwards '08 tees!

[orleans]

3. so--who should i bet on then? n/t

[maximusveritas]

4. For Iowa, I would bet on Edwards

As long as its close, he has almost all the advantages on the ground and with the caucus system.

[thunder rising]

5. THE POLLS ARE LYING...

Anybody in Iowa canvassing will tell you the numbers of actual responses are statistical noise. I was there in '04 for Dean. The POLLS LIE, end of story, forget about it, fini, that's it, last word.

Iowans have been doing this for a long time and most WILL NOT ANSWER. The remainder in my case (as was confirmed by 5 or 6 other canvassers) was 10/100, spread around the various candidates. That is NOT A POLL. IT IS NOISE!!!

Anybody canvassing in Iowa care to refute this? I'll bet not. The outcome will be decided in a few days. The media loves a horse race and that's all there is to it.

I WILL vote in the GE for our candidate. I have my choice for now, but they are all such a breath of fresh air from the stink of Bush and the Christian killers, that for now it would be best for all of us not there in Iowa to take a deep breath and wait.

There is one statistic that nobody wants to take. It seems to me the best raw statistic is the number of people showing up at events. Count them. It's raw, but it's real (it takes some effort to show up at an event ... like the 20th similar event.) I would show up for my candidate anytime he/she passed through town.

[orleans]

6. i don't know about iowa polls--but we all know how wrong the exit

polls were for 2000 and 2004. i mean, look what happened--bush won!








:sarcasm:

ha! i don't think i've EVER said that before
:evilgrin: :rofl:

[maximusveritas]

7. Kick n/t

[tinrobot]

8. 8% undecided

This is going to be verrry interesting.

[saltpoint]

9. What a great, great campaign John Edwards is running in Iowa.

The GOP side is interesting in that "America's Mayor" is tied for FIFTH place with Ron Paul.