Edwards/Richardson/Biden Surge in Iowa Edwards 24%, Hillary 23%, Obama 22%, Richardson 12%, Biden 8%

[Tejanocrat]

Dodd 2%, Kucinich 1%

http://www.thestate.com/local/story/270299.html

[aquart]

1. It's a nail biter.

[gateley]

2. I wasn't paying attention in 2004. Was it this frenetic prior to Iowa back then? nt

[Tejanocrat]

3. Yes. The Iowa polls the week of the caucus generally got the order right but the numbers were off.

[gateley]

6. It will be SO interesting to see what happens. We all have such high hopes for our candidates. nt

[DemPopulist]

4. Yep

Maybe a little more so, since there were essentially four viable candidates (Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards) and the K/E surge didn't show up until right near the end.

[gateley]

7. Thanks! nt

[elleng]

5. Expired.

Its S. Carolina paper; does that make diff?

Could someone please paste poll here?

[Stop Cornyn]

8. Each candidate who fails to reach 15% statewide gets zero delegates so Richardson needs to get 3%

more or his surge is meaningless.

It won't be news that Richardson came in 4th unless he reaches the level of actually getting delegates.

For Biden, any surge that ends with him in 5th place is fatal to his campaign because he said he'd withdraw if he didn't come in 3rd; later, Biden revised to say he'd withdraw if he didn't some in 4th place and close to 3rd place. He can't afford another revision to explain away a 5th place finish.

[Tejanocrat]

9. That's a good point, I guess.

[1corona4u]

10. Yeah, well, I don't think he will need to worry about that.

[Carrieyazel]

11. Iowans are looking for an alternative to Clinton and Obama

The saturation media coverage this year for both of them may end up sinking both of them.

[calteacherguy]

12. If Edwards does win Iowa it's going to be a real free for all.

As an Obama supporter, I like the open primary in NH and the independent vote there.

[Stop Cornyn]

13. Whether its Edwards or Obama who wins Iowa, Hillary finishing 3rd (or worse???) would be huge!

[Eurobabe]

15. I will go out on a limb and say Biden #3, Hillary#4

or Obama #4?

[Stop Cornyn]

16. I hope you're right, but the trend seems to be toward Richardson (more than Biden) as the one who

might break out of the second-tier pack. I don't see it happening, but it sure would be nice.

[Eurobabe]

17. In the end it will be Biden

not Richardson. Have faith. A bird told me.

[Tejanocrat]

20. Hmmm. The bird told ME it would be Edwards, Obama, Richardson, Clinton, Biden

[Eurobabe]

22. No way will Richardson come in 3rd.

Get a grip. Amusing since you've only been on here for 9 months, you know so much already. :sarcasm:

[Eurobabe]

14. Edwards will take Iowa

believed this a long time ago.

Watch for Biden to surprise as well.

[silverojo]

18. Iowa usually gives a 10% bump in the polls

Or so it's said. The media frenzy surrounding an unexpected Edwards win will make a LOT of people reconsider him as a candidate.

[musicblind]

19. Edwards

I have to say, that while I support Hillary a lot as well... I would also greatly enjoy an Edwards win in Iowa. I think he is fantastically suited to be president and I would be very enthusiastic in doing what I could to help him in the GE. I feel similar about Hillary as well, the only one that I'm not TOO gung ho about is Obama (though I would support him in a GE as my obligation to the party and principals). But wow, if Edwards were to pull off Iowa... that would be big for him. The biggest downside to Edwards was my fear he couldn't win the primaries. I'd love to see an Edwards/Clinton ticket or Clinton/Edwards. Whichever way. I just think that Edwards is smart, sharp, charismatic, and ready to go. We'll see though ...

[Tejanocrat]

21. A 10% bump in the polls for Edwards would make New Hampshire VERY interesting:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

[Stop Cornyn]

23. True.