CSPAN/Zogby Iowa Poll - Clinton 31, Obama 26, Edwards 24

[ariesgem]

Toss Up in Iowa
The first Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll in Iowa is out this morning and confirms the findings of several polls last week that show an extremely tight presidential race for both Democrats and Republicans. The telephone poll was conducted 12/26 thru 12/29.

On the Democratic side, there is a three-way statistical tie with Sen. Hillary Clinton leading with 30.7% support, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 26.8% and John Edwards at 24.2%. The poll's margin of error is 3.3%.

Key finding: Edwards is the clear second choice favorite with 30.4%, followed by Obama at 24.9% and Clinton at 12.2%. According to Democratic caucus rules, candidates who receive less than 15% of the vote are considered "non-viable." Their backers have the choice of either going home or casting their ballots for their second choice.

On the Republican side, there is also a tie for first place. Mike Huckabee leads with 27.7%, followed by Mitt Romney at 26.6%, Sen. John McCain at 10.9%, Fred Thompson at 7.8% and Rudy Giuliani at 7.3%. The poll's margin of error is 3.4%.

One interesting finding: Democrats think Republicans will choose Huckabee as their nominee; Republicans think Democrats will choose Obama.

http://politicalwire.com/

[Hope And Change]

1. Republicans Thinks Obama Will Win The Iowa Caucus...

here are the numbers:

Obama 38%

Edwards 33%

Hillary 11%


The Democrats second choice among likely caucus goers:

Edwards 30%

Obama 25%

Hillary 12%

[maximusveritas]

3. Those 2nd choice numbers are bad for Hillary n/t

[Yukari Yakumo]

11. Question is...

How many of the Obama/Edwards 2nd choice picks come from Obama or Edwards supporters?

[PDittie]

2. You rounded Clinton's number up (30.7)

and Obama's down (26.8). Just a point of information, nothing more.

[TeamJordan23]

4. yeah, you should put 27% as Obama's number. nm

[Colobo]

5. Exactly; Obama 's only 4 pts away, without counting the margin of error.

[ariesgem]

6. Corrected.

At the time I posted this, CSPAN announced the poll numbers on Washington Journal with the rounded out numbers of 30/27/24. I typed the header according to their discussion and then found & pasted the context without checking the precise numbers.

My mistake.

[BenDavid]

7. the following is the key for thursday night:

The poll found Clinton's supporters were the most dedicated, with 76 percent saying their support was "very" strong, compared to 65 percent for Edwards and 56 percent for Obama.


Plus the wether is to be clear and mild with temps in the high 20's to low 30's and this will help HRC.....

[TeamJordan23]

8. Second Choice is key. This is where Hillary is not doing well. nm

[TeamJordan23]

9. delete. dupe

[Joe the Revelator]

14. Any port in a storm,right David?

[AtomicKitten]

10. Zogby was on Washington Journal this A.M.

He said Hillary's problem is that she has a ceiling on support and that is exacerbated by her garnering only 12% of the second choice vote (which is otherwise split between Edwards (+1) and Obama). He also said that because young people use cell phones, it is difficult to poll them representatively.

Translation? He said it means Iowa is a genuine three-way tie.

[bigdarryl]

12. Hes trying to cover his ass on both ends just in case his numbers are way off when....

the actual votes come in Thursday

[AtomicKitten]

13. Iowa is a crapshoot and anything can happen.

Zogby did say that the RW ideologues want Hillary to win and that they think Obama is the "hot" candidate and are wary about going up against him. I'm hoping some tech wizard can isolate his interview on WJ this A.M. and post it. That skill is above my pay grade. :)