The Polls Are All Over The Place, Anyone Of Either Party Can Caucus

[ThomWV]

Undeclared voters can change their registration a half hour before they caucus in Iowa. There is little consistency between the major polls when it comes to the top or bottom three candidates there either. Ron Paul is out there robbing voters from ... from ..., just where in hell do Ron Paul voters come from anyway? Whatever. There are so many variables in the Iowa Caucus, not the least of which is that first cut at which if a would be candidate does not have 15% of those present on his or her side they fall off the table - well, where do those potential voters go? Do they go home or do they move into an unexpected camp? They gotta go somewhere.

So to be honest about it I don't think anyone can make much of an informed guess about Iowa.

[cgrindley]

1. The major polls really aren't all over the place

Hillary is going to take the state! In your face, Edwards supporters.

[ThomWV]

4. Maybe, maybe not.

I don't think she will myself, but maybe. As for Edwards, I sort of guess, and that's certainly all it is - a guess, I'd say he'll come in 4th place. Really. I don't think he'll hold when people get together and start discussing the issues other than domestic; pretty important stuff these days.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I'd Bet My Life That HRC, JRE, And BHO Will Comprise The Top Three

I am much less certain how they will finish ...

[brooklynite]

2. The real question now isn't about professed support...

It's now a question of the ground game - who has the most accurate lists of where their supporters are, the volunteers to round them up, the cars, tucks, vans etc. to pick them up and deliver them to the caucus sites.

[papau]

3. Pat Robertson won Iowa - did not seem to help him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Nor Did It Help Bush Pere In 80 And Dick Gephardt In 88

Or Tom Harkin in 92...

[cgrindley]

7. Trends from the past allow you to correctly predict

THE PAST.

[The_Casual_Observer]

8. This Iowa thing is a circus/farce.

[liam_laddie]

9. IA caucus system explained

A post outlining the process; for me, the best overview so far. The Jan 3 caucuses are only the first step in the process of choosing 29 of the 57 national convention delegates; precincts now, then at county level in March, then at Cong. district level in April. The other 28 delegates are named at the state convention in June.
Seems to me the MSM is creating hoop-la to sell audience numbers to their advertisers. Self-serving as always. Estimated Dem turnout is in the 120k range; repub 80k. BTW, the R caucus system is simpler to understand, except it's a secret ballot (who'da thunk?)
Anyway, if you're wondering about the mechanics of what Iowans are doing these days <http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/122807A.shtml >