OT - MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren takes the lead!

[Inuca]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/20/1018503/-MA-Sen:-Elizabeth-Warren-takes-the lead!?showAll=yes&via=blog_1

I know it does not mean much at this point, but still it's nice to see, isn't it?

[Mass]

1. Yes, but the poll was taken just after she announces, which

means she got a ton of media coverage. So, it remains to be seen whether she continues on this step or not.

I feel very uncomfortable with her running because of her lack of platform. Saying that the middle class is only one step from poverty is certainly a feeling I share, but it is not a platform, and there are candidates who actually have a platform I could go behind. So, as long as I do not know more about what she could support or not to solve issues, I am going to be undecided on whom to support (in the primary of course).

Sorry to be a squeaky wheel,

This said, this poll could be useful by showing that Brown is not unbeatable.

[karynnj]

2. Brown's own numbers are actually more interesting - I think the Democarts have "come home"

He is imploding. The fact that his unfavorable number is now 45% to 44% favorable is a HUGE shift in a short time. It is hard to account for as there was not much done between the two polls. It may be that the dirty tricks twitter nonsense hit him more than it might most as his top asset was the perception that he was a nice guy, so people were willing to ignore their disagreements.

Not to mention, I suspect that the MA media will not be able to spin this as Brown still being the most popular MA elected official

Brown's numbers suggest that, even if Warren implodes and another Democrat wins, Brown is likely no longer the unbeatable frontrunner.

But, Brown's own concern - Obama won't play basketball with him. http://www.google.com/url?url=http://thehill.com/capital-living/in-the-know/182471-scott-brown-ready-to-hoop-it-up-against-obama-but-cant-get-on-the-white-house-court-&rct=j&sa=X&ctbm=nws&ei=hMl4TvO_DvO80AGA_7mUDA&sqi=2&ved=0CDIQ-AsoATAA&q=scott+brown+Obama&usg=AFQjCNH0Q0sVqJ2vy3YNrksT-OKj_WgZXg&cad=rja

[MBS]

3. great picture of who Scotty is. . .

and hopeful sign that people are finally seeing through him.

[Mass]

4. I would not hold my breath seeing the media report this.

At this point, I have not heard any local media report the new poll's numbers and the Globe does not seem to be interested either.

They are too busy talking about Brown's press conference to say he has a good record on gay rights.http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2011/09/20/scott-brown-defends-gay-rights-record-from-democratic-criticism/0z6AqMrfHNJuYB4wGYXabI/story.xml

as well as deciding if Liz Warren will be hurt or helped by being from Harvard.

[whometense]

5. For what it's worth,

they interviewed Elizabeth Warren on Morning Joe today. She came across very, very well, I thought - smart, plain-spoken, and strong. I liked her a lot.

Anyway, they talked about the poll.

[Mass]

6. I liked the interview. She is really good in this format.

[YvonneCa]

7. Did you see...

...this? http://www.addictinginfo.org/2011/09/21/liberal-hero-of-the-day-elizabeth-warren-9-21-2011/

And this:

http://front.moveon.org/the-elizabeth-warren-quote-every-american-needs-to-see/?rc=fb.rp.2&rc=tw.fol

[Mass]

8. Seen them, but most people will not see them. This was my point I was making.

(at least about those who are swing voters).

[karynnj]

9. The interesting thing though is that Warren narrowly beat Brown

in this one poll - in spite of the media not calling Brown on much of anything. It shows that a large portion of Massachusetts voters do bother to get the facts - even if their media lets them down.

I also wonder how the poll results - especially if they are replicated in other polls - influences the media. It may be that as (if) he fades, they will be less fawning. I also wonder how this impacts Brown - his refusal to have more than a 45 second interview with Politico - ending as he was asked of the poll looks surly and not at all professional. He has always been reluctant to answer reporters' questions, but as the questions get negative, refusing to answer looks worse.

In 2010, his face was always lit up with a smile. It does not seem that will be the case this time. It could make a real difference.

[Mass]

10. It is not the first time we see people beating Brown in a poll.

Joe Kennedy and a couple other well known names did that (or came very close to a tie). The main difference is that they were not running, and she is. So, it was already clear Brown was beatable (whatever Mr Menino said).

There are two things in this poll that are notable. First, every candidate does better against Brown than in the previous poll. That is the good news, because this shows that Brown erodes, something we have seen in other polls (including the one where the Globe had to reinvent the definition of popularity). The other, more bothering, is that every Democrat (and this include Elizabeth Warren) loses to Brown for the Gen X voters. Independently of whom will be the democratic candidate, this should be a source of concern.

I think those are the principal news of these polls. A candidate with name recognition can beat Brown.

[YvonneCa]

11. You could be right but...

...it's gone viral. Traditional coverage stinks, but new media is reaching more and more people:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/22/1019249/-MA-Sen:-Elizabeth-Warren-video-on-class-warfare-goes-viral?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailykos%2Findex+%28Daily+Kos%29

[TayTay]

12. This is true, but it is also irrelevant

About 88 or more percent of the population already knows who they will vote for next year. The vote Democratic or Republican and we know this is the split going into the Presidential election next year. No amount of information is going to be persuasive against a candidate for this grouping of the electorate.

We get and share information on discussion boards and forums in order to re-inforce our own opinions and to be armed in case we run into the 6-12% of the electorate that is actualy persuadable in a given year.

It is entirely true that most people don't pay attention in minute detail to politics. This has always been true. Sometimes the people who decide elections are the people who pick up their information in small pieces.

There is nothing wrong with trying to arm the people who are already in your corner. This can be a necessary morale boost that is needed to convince people to continue to work for a cause.

We might also meet the truly persuadable, one at a time, and that is when information comes in handy. This is not the grand sweep of politics, it is politics done one conversation, one moment, at a time.

President Obama is going to amass a $1 billion dollar war chest for his re-election next year. That $1 billion is gonig to go to re-inforce the views of those who already are going to vote for him and to give the tiny percentage of people who are undecided a tiny glimpse of why they should be with him. Imagine all that money going to such a small cause.