Brian Dunning's inFact - The 2012 Apocalypse

[Ian David]

Run time: 03:24 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5dQX7EmvGs   Posted on YouTube: August 23, 2009 By YouTube Member: Views on YouTube: 0   Posted on DU: October 21, 2009 By DU Member: Ian David Views on DU: 382

 
Episode 1 of 3 pilot episodes of Brian Dunning's proposed web series inFact. What is really going to happen on December 21, 2012, and how did we get this prediction? This new video series is seeking sponsorship or distribution. Come to http://skeptoid.com/infact.php for more information.

See also:

Apocalypse 2012
Tall tales that the End of Days is coming in 2012.

Listen: http://skeptoid.com/audio/skeptoid-4093.mp3
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Skeptoid #93
March 25, 2008
Podcast transcript

Abandon all your possessions and run for the hills: It has been foretold that the world is coming to an end sooner than you think, in the year 2012. It seems that you can't pick up any newspaper or magazine without reading that the apocalypse is almost upon us.

What really is going to happen in 2012? Asteroid 433 Eros is going to pass within 17 million miles of the Earth in January; the United States will hand over control of the Korean military back to the Koreans in April; there will be an annular solar eclipse in May and a solar transit of Venus in June; the Summer Olympics will take place in London; the Earth's population will officially pass 7 billion people in October; the United States will elect a new President in November; construction of the new Freedom Tower will be complete in New York City; the sun will flip its magnetic poles as it does at the end of every 11-year sunspot cycle; and, as I'm sure you've heard by now, the Mayan calendar completes its 5,125 year cycle, presumably portending the End of Days.

Mayans had three calendars. They had a solar calendar that was 365 days long, and a ceremonial calendar that was 260 days long. These two calendars would synchronize every 52 years. To measure longer time periods, they developed the "long count" calendar, which expressed dates as a series of five numbers, each less than twenty; something like the way we measure minutes and seconds as a series of two numbers each less than sixty. And, just in case this might seem too simple, for some reason the second to last number was always less than eighteen. The first day in the Mayan long count calendar was expressed as 0.0.0.0.0, and by our calendar, this was August 11, 3114 BC. Every 144,000 days (or about every 395 years, which they called a baktun), the first number would increment, and a new baktun would start. Recall how we all got to enjoy the excitement on the millennium of watching the digital displays roll over from 12/31/1999 to 1/1/2000? Well, that's what's going to happen on December 21, 2012 to the Mayan calendar. It's going to roll over from 12.19.19.17.19 to 13.0.0.0.0, just as it has done each of the previous twelve baktuns. There's no archaeological or historical evidence that the Mayans themselves expected anything other than a New Year's Eve party to happen on this date: Claims that this rollover represents a Mayan prediction of the end of the world appear to be a modern pop-culture invention. It's true that the Mayan carvings of their calendar only depicted 13 baktuns, but what did you expect them to do? Carve an infinitely long calendar every time they wanted to express a date? The explanation could be as simple as they didn't expect people in the 21st century to still be obsessed with their archaic calendar.

Another story predicting doom in 2012 says that a new planet, variously described as Planet X, a planet/comet (which makes no sense), or the planet "Nibiru" is going to pass so close to the Earth as to cause earthquakes and tidal waves and all kinds of destruction, possibly even flipping the Earth completely upside down. This is an urban legend that's been around for a long time, but for most of the story's history, this was supposed to happen in May of 2003, as any Internet search for "Planet X" will reveal. Apparently what happened is that the Planet X advocates, perhaps embarrassed or disappointed that 2003 passed without incident, heard about the much more popular Mayan calendar story, and decided that 2012 is close enough to 2003 that it must be the correct date and that the Planet X destruction is probably what the Mayans were foretelling. The Planet X legend got started by misinterpretations of astronomical observations combined with an ancient Sumerian carving that has been erroneously interpreted to depict a solar system with ten planets. Why the craftsmen who made carvings in ancient Sumeria should be presumed to have planetary knowledge superior to that of modern astronomy is not convincingly argued. If you're interested in all of the actual science behind the Planet X story, there's no better source than Phil Plait's "Bad Astronomy" blog, which goes into all the facts, rumors, and sources in detail.



More:
http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4093

[damntexdem]

1. Don't have time now. Ask me again on Dec. 22, 2012.

;-)

[clear eye]

2. ? And they use the argument that evolution is "theory", not "fact"? n/t

[GoneOffShore]

3. Someone's going to smack you you nasty skeptic you!

LOL
Thanks for the posting.

[David Zephyr]

4. Of course, it's nutty. But have some fun. Here are some fun 2012 videos, too.

2012: The Movie: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyCCd8MCcZY

2012: Music Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G604uMDtBOs

2012: The Mayan Calendar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhTjrQSfWCs