Zogby Releases Poll Harmful To Clinton

[ThomWV]

John Zogby notes during his appearance on Washington Journal this morning (12/30) that Ms. Clinton leads in the Iowa poll he has taken with 31% of those surveyed who will caucus for Democrats. He also notes that she takes 12% as a second choice.

Unfortunately in Iowa both Republicans and Democrats can participate in the Democratic caucus so what you are seeing with the results noted above should be about what you would see in the General Election, were it held today. That means that Hillary might be expected to take 43% of the vote including Republican crossover. John Zogby noted that "that's all she's got".

Folks, in this country if a candidate takes 43% of the vote means a landslide of a defeat.

[Perry Logan]

1. Wow. I never head THAT one before!

[Skidmore]

2. Presently, the gnashing of teeth and wailing will begin...

quit picking on Hillary. Leave Hillary alone.

Thom, you are so correct. I have been trying to tell people here for the past two years that in Iowa the type of support Hillary needs is not here. You would need to see Republican crossover needed to make a difference and if Rs cross to Hillary, the vote is suspect--IMHO.

[K Gardner]

3. I agree with your astute assessment and am extremely happy to say

I'll be in bed sleeping when the fireworks start :-)

Have a great day ! :yourock:

[Bright Eyes]

4. Just wait till the hillarybots get here

:popcorn:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. ?

?

[Bright Eyes]

8. A Hillarybot is a Clinton supporter who is almost robotic in they're

support for her, and take any form of criticism very personally.

And there are Obamabots and Edwardsbots and Kucinichbots.

For the record, it's "Mr.Asshat":)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Edited It Before You Responded

I prefer to look at folks as individuals... I'm not a big fan of stereotyping folks...

[College Liberal]

23. I think they are keeping their powder dry

for when she actually wins, then they will spring the "told ya so" on us

:eyes:

[Perry Logan]

5. And you call the Democrats in Congress cowards!

[ThomWV]

6. I hate to say it but its even worse for my guy (Biden) who apparently could get beat

by just about anyone.

[Toots]

10. Bull.. In a General election she would only be runnng against one person, a Republican

In the Primaries she is running against all the Democrats and all the Republicans since it is an open Primary and anyone can vote..43% in this scenerio is a huge landslide victory...

[GR]

11. I Seems Your Logic Is Flawed

Firstly, it's not that easy for republicans to vote in democratic caucuses, as I understand it. You have to change your registration, at least temporarily. So you're not going to get all the republicans voting in democratic primaries, only the select few who either like Hillary or think she will be easy to beat and have no motivation to vote in a republican caucus for one of the republican candidates.

Secondly, that second choice number is among democrats. You have to look at her numbers with respect to other republicans, not other democrats.

All in all, those numbers are inconclusive and most of the national polls show her beating every republican but McCain.

I personally lean toward Edwards right now, but Senator Clinton can win if she's the nominee.

[Joanne98]

12. I've been saying I think Republicans are going to cross-over and vote for her!

Because she is the only candidate they can beat in a general election.

[Dawgs]

13. Taking half of the second half votes and adding them to the first choice shows something different.

FIRST CHOICE
Hillary 31%
Obama 27%
Edwards 24 %

SECOND CHOICE
Edwards 30%
Obama 25%
Hillary 12%

Added Together
Obama 27 + 12.5 = 39.5
Edwards 24 + 15 = 39
Hillary 31 + 6 = 37

[zanne]

14. Could somebody PLEASE explain the Iowa caucus to me?

Every time I think that I finally understand how it works, it turns out that I don't. Is there any simple language that can be used to explain (like I'm six years old) how this works? Thanks in advance.

[Dems Will Win]

15. No.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Yeah- If Your Candidate Doesn't Have Fifteen Percent At Your Caucus Site You Have To Caucus For Some

one Else...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. From John Zogby

"Importantly, if you eliminate the potentially 'unviable' candidates and redistribute their supporters' second choices, the result is: Clinton 35.8%, Obama 33.4%, Edwards 30.8%."


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1406

[onenote]

18. of course,this doesn't tell you what the results would be if there were only two choices

or if the choice was between one Democrat and one repub.

[Prefer]

19. Edwards is winning. That's her problem

that's why she tried to take him down with the fake sex scandal.

[cali]

20. I don't know why I should bother, but

there's 0 evidence that Clinton had anything to do with that. First of all, it started months and months ago, when it's difficult to believe that Clinton saw Edwards as a threat. Secondly, it's against her interests to take Edwards down before Iowa. Only the hopelessly stupid wouldn't be able to figure that out.

[emilyg]

22. What?

[Adelante]

25. Pay no attention

They think the National Enquirer likes Hillary :crazy:

[Ravy]

21. I am an Edwards supporter, but your OP conclusion is way off.

At least, based on what you wrote.

Using your logic, if there was only two people in the race, then her first choice, plus second choice total would be 100%, which is by all respects, a landslide.

Plus, you have to be registered as a Democrat to vote in the Iowa caucus.

[suston96]

24. Repubbas have a tight race of their own. Not too many will crossover in primaries.