Independent UK: On the battle for America

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Rupert Cornwell: On the battle for America

The first votes will be cast in Iowa this week, with neither party yet having a clear favourite to stand for the big job. But whoever eventually emerges victorious, November's election will transform the nation – and have a massive impact on the wider world

Published: 30 December 2007


To paraphrase Winston Churchill's remark apropos of the British victory at El Alamein, Thursday evening's caucuses in the midwestern state of Iowa are not the end, nor even the beginning of the end. But at least they will be the end of the beginning for the struggle that is set to dominate news from the United States for the next 12 months.

If a US presidential election is the political campaign equivalent of world war – waged over years, on a myriad different fronts – then this is the moment when the first phase ends. After an eternity of opinion polls and candidates' debates, speechifying and squabbling, finally a small number of Americans will actually cast votes that count.

Perhaps fewer than 250,000 people, barely 1 in ten of eligible Iowans, will participate in the curious gatherings in church halls, precinct clubs and private living rooms across Iowa that kick off the primary season. But what they decide will disproportionately influence the ultimate selection of the Republican and Democratic nominees. By the end of February, the bulk of the states will have had their say, and those nominees may already be clear. The process however will not be complete until 4 November 2008, when the country's voters will choose a successor to George W Bush. And this time, as rarely before, the whole world will be watching.

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But, third and most important, the conservatism that has held sway for almost three decades is bankrupt. The Republican minority may hold together in Congress just enough to thwart almost every Democratic initiative. But the coalition that has kept the Republicans in power, between southern-centred social conservatives and old-style business conservatives, is coming apart. Thanks to Mr Bush, the party has even lost its reputation for competence. As a result, the desire of voters may be summed up in a single word: change.

And a single figure is enough to explain why. Bush's fortunes may no longer be falling, and the war in Iraq, until lately the main concern of voters, has been going slightly better of late, tactically if not strategically. But his countrymen are in a funk. Fully 70 per cent believe America is "on the wrong track". Not since the Carter era – of soaring energy prices, the humiliating hostage crisis in Iran, and what was perceived as a weak and vacillating presidency – has the US been in so measurably sour a mood. The system just doesn't seem to be working.

The average American is famous for paying little attention to what goes on beyond the ocean's edge. But in their different ways, the decline of both the dollar and America's reputation, symbols of diminished US economic and moral authority, are ever harder to ignore. Then there are the specific problems: old ones, like a dysfunctional healthcare system and runaway education costs; and newer ones, such as the ever-growing disparity between rich and poor, making a mockery of the country's egalitarian roots.

And then there is the economy. The sub-prime mortgage crisis has spawned a credit crunch that could well bring the most painful recession since the early 1980s. No less a seer than the former Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, (whose own reputation admittedly is much tarnished by the sub-prime mess) now reckons that the chances of avoiding recession in 2008 are no better than 50/50. At the very least, growth will slow sharply for the next few months. That means fewer new jobs, higher unemployment and probably a surge in protectionist pressures. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article3293915.ece