EDWARDS LEADS in Iowa --NEW McClatchy-MSNBC Poll ... LINK

[Blackhatjack]

The Edwards momentum is in play in Iowa. Polls are now showing gains for Edwards that put him on track to win in Iowa. Edwards is gaining and Clinton & Obama are falling.... EDWARDS is on his way!!!

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/politicians/edwards/story/852629.html

by Steven Thomma, McClatchy Newspapers

"DES MOINES, IOWA - John Edwards has clawed his way into contention to win Iowa's caucuses Thursday in the first vote for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll. The former North Carolina senator has gained strength as rivals Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have lost ground, the poll found."

<snip>

"Among Democrats, Edwards has the support of 24 percent of likely caucus attendees. Clinton, a senator from New York, came in at 23 percent, and Obama, an Illinois senator, at 22 percent. The other Democratic candidates were 10 percentage points or more behind."

<snip>

"On the Democratic side, the race is about as close as it can get, but keep an eye on Edwards," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "Edwards has really moved up since our last poll. Obama and Clinton have each slipped a little bit." The new survey, taken Dec. 26 through 28, came three weeks after the initial Dec. 3 through 6 poll."

<snip>

"While the survey shows the top three Democrats are about even, it also shows Edwards with some momentum heading into the final days. He has gained 3 percentage points since McClatchy-MSNBC polled Iowa before the holidays, while Clinton lost 4 points and Obama lost 3 points. .... If all second-tier Democratic candidates fall short and their supporters switch to other candidates, Edwards gains the most, rolling up a clear lead at 33 percent to 26 percent each for Clinton and Obama. ... Edwards, pushing a people-versus-the powerful message, owes his gains to voters looking for a general election winner, someone who agrees with them on the issues and those who rank Iraq as their top concern. Key demographic slices for him include men and union members.

Of note: More Iowa Democrats have a favorable impression of him -- and fewer have an unfavorable impression of him -- than of any other candidate."
"

[rpritchard]

1. This race

Is wide-open. Anyone can win, and any of the top three could even end up fourth.

[senseandsensibility]

2. I read the whole article

Can anyone tell me how they know that Edwards will get thirty three percent if the second tier candidates release their voters to vote for someone else? Have the candidates already stated who they would give their votes to if they don't achieve fifteen percent? I do remember that Kuchinich released his to Edwards in 2004, but how can they be so certain of this number?

[Blackhatjack]

4. They poll the question who would be your 2nd choice if your chosen candidate dropped out...

Then they cross-correlate the candidate choice with the polled second choice response to tally the likely 'second choice' vote movement from one candidate to another.

Of course it is just a poll, no one knows for sure how the second choice voters will actually go anymore than how the first choice voters will go.

[senseandsensibility]

6. Thanks

So the second tier candidates don't necessarily ask their voters to vote for someone else if they don't make fifteen percent? I just remeember Kucinich doing this with Edwards last time.

[CorpGovActivist]

19. "Cross-Correlate"?!?

Does that rhyme with "triangulate," BHJ?

; )

- Dave

[Blackhatjack]

31. Don't 'misunderestimate' me .... LOL

It sounded good when I typed it! LOL

[CorpGovActivist]

36. I'm Plagued by Misunderstandification...

... myself.

:rofl:

- Dave

[Orangepeel]

5. Individuals decide who to caucus for second

if their candidate doesn't make the cut. So this 33% number is based on asking people who their second choice would be.

A campaign might have a coordinated effort to ask them to go to someone else in particular, which could affect how people caucus in the second round. But candidates don't have an official say in who to release their people to in the caucuses (the way they would at the convention).

[senseandsensibility]

8. Thanks

You guys are the best. I asked this question in a similar thread in LBN a while back, but no one answered. :)

[HughMoran]

3. While the survey shows the top three Democrats are about even

I love it - glad it's wide-open just a few days before the vote!

[WillyT]

7. Yep...

'I'm a lifelong Republican, and I'm
going to vote for you,' Mike Wood of
Washington, Iowa, tells Democratic
presidential hopeful John Edwards.
A new poll shows Edwards in a strong
position for Iowa caucuses on Thursday.

[senseandsensibility]

9. Woo-hoo!

It is just amazing that Edwards has done this while being ignored by the corporate media.

[Blackhatjack]

11. So true... in spite of the MSM trying to marginalize him, he is moving up in Iowa..

[2hip]

13. Edwards speaks to The People

and the M$M has always been slow to read that pulse. Watch how fast they'll jump on the bandwagon with an Iowa win.



        Edwards '08 tees!

[Blackhatjack]

15. Exactly! And that is why the short time to New Hampshire will not give the losers much time...

... to change the momentum Edwards will bring with him.

[senseandsensibility]

24. Call me jaded but I'm not so sure of that.

True, they are not quick to sense the pulse of the people, but their absolute phobia of Edwards is much more than that. They actively don't want him to win. They will continue to marginalize him even if he wins Iowa. In fact, I've already heard tweety begin to do it. He said something along the lines of even if the "other guy" (Edwards-he can't even mention his name) wins, it won't mean anything. No, they will fight Edwards until the end.

[Lex]

27. Buy why?

I think I see this too. Why do you think it is happening?

[senseandsensibility]

37. Well, news outlets are corporations too

They benefit under Republican rule the most, but if they can't have a Republican they at least want a more corporate friendly Dem. They've decided that Edeards is not going to "play ball" with them. The corporate media benefits from Republican rule in many ways: lower taxes, more media consolidation just to name a couple. I'm sure their profits are way up since chimp took office. Anyway, that's my opinion. I'm sure others could explain it much better.

[Lex]

34. Nice pic

and caption. Thanks for posting it.

[LSK]

10. All polls are too close to call

The only one that matters is the one next Thursday.

[Lex]

12. Nice.

:thumbsup:

[Blackhatjack]

14. Time Pol Reporter on CSPAN said Edwards had been covered by the MSM in last 2-3 mos...

... because he was one of three who could win Iowa.

So I guess the MSM re-writing of history is part of the spin on their failure to cover Edwards for the past year, trying to turn it into a Clinton v. Obama race.

Better late than never...

[Lex]

16. A large percentage of the so-called "undecideds" are breaking for Edwards

it seems.

But I do think the Corporate Media has pushed Clinton and Obama while marginalizing Edwards.

[Blackhatjack]

17. I visited the CNN Politics Page Last Night and NOT ONE TITLED ARTICLE mentioned EDWARDS...

Just looking at the story headlines and links you would not even know Edwards was running.

[CorpGovActivist]

18. CNNHN Featured the Mason-Dixon Poll Today...

... FYI.

- Dave

[LaPera]

20. Edwards will win Iowa - Republicans will trash Edwards and label him a....

"flip-flopper" and a "far left liberal"...... Republicans do not want to face a strong, brilliant, fighter like John Edwards - A seasoned progressive politician as indeed Edwards is....The republicans feel they have a much better chance against a black man or a woman. It's sounds racist & sexist but that exactly what the corporate fascist republicans are.

Remember whomever the democratic nominee is, the republicans will always try and pin the word "flip-flopper" on the democrat.

The republicans love using that term and to pin that word on democrat, because how can anyone vote for someone who's a flip-flopper? Whether it's true or not the republican will try to make it stick to the democratic candidate....Limbaugh, Hannity and all the right-wing puppets, talking heads will pound it in, day in and day out "FLIP-FLOPPER" until it sticks on the democrat even though it's completely untrue...

Slimy, lying, greedy Republicans!!

Guaranteed Republican Labels: "Flip-Flopper" "Far Left Liberal" "Radical" and "Tax & Spend Democrat".

And then, the republicans WILL attack the democratic candidate's C-H-A-R-A-C-T-E-R. Fabricated stories will pop up out of nowhere trashing the Dems character, "swiftboating" the Dems character with lies & lies and more lies.....Using their powerful lying, distorting, smearing republican corporate media machine!

[MzNov]

21. So they will. And then Edwards will go on to win the presidency

of the United States !!!! :woohoo: :woohoo:

:bounce:

[LaPera]

22. It's true Edwards will win...It will be President John Edwards.

[MzNov]

23. President John Edwards. A nice happy sound. :)

[Lex]

29. Yes, *any* Democrat that wins will be smeared and lied about by

the CONS. No doubt.

Some said Kerry was "smear-proof" because of his purple-heart and they smeared him on that very thing. It's sick.

[Prefer]

25. Edwards is deffinitely our next president

[EFerrari]

26. Go, John!

:kick:

[Kurovski]

28. Hi!

Are you leaning towards Edwards, or what? :hi:

[EFerrari]

33. My heart is always with Dennis but I'd also love to see John do well!

:hi:

[AspenRose]

30. I'm no psychic, but I've had two dreams

One was of John & Elizabeth Edwards stepping off of Air Force One...the other was JE taking his official presidential portrait.

It's probably a wishfully thinking subconscious working overtime. :-)

I'd be very happy with either Edwards or Biden.

[sellitman]

32. Although I like the sound of this poll...

Polls change faster than the weather here in the NE.

[onehandle]

35. He'll win Iowa.

He'll win it all.

[CorpGovActivist]

38. .

[onehandle]

39. First Iowa, then the game. nt