Analysts: New Housing Crash Looms

[CoffeeCat]

If you want to know the truth--it's in the trade and industry publications that are free from
corporate pressure to spin every bit of bad news into a "greenshoot" story.

Here's where you get reality--from experts reporting on the truth about the mortgage crisis.

This article is from "Default Services News" which is an online and print publication, serving experts
who deal specifically in the mortgage-default realm.

I love it when I find REAL TRUTH--whether it is good or bad news--because honest reporting is so hard to
find these days. Especially when it comes to the economy.

From the article: (more at link at bottom of page)

New Housing Crash Looms as Shadow Inventory Climbs past 7 Million: Analysts

The housing crash is about to come back with a vengeance, as 7 million new foreclosure properties are about to hit the market, analysts at Amherst Securities Group LP said this week.

The New York-based mortgage-bond analysts called that number – which is about five-and-a-half times larger than 2005’s national tally of delinquencies and foreclosures – a “huge shadow inventory” that threatens to further destabilize a housing market that had shown signs of righting itself over the summer.

Despite some recent optimism, many market observers now agree on several factors that are expanding the nation’s shadow inventory. Loan modifications, legal wrangling, redefaults and bank practices have delayed foreclosures while actually worsening many homeowners’ positions.

As a result, the analysts say a so-far undisclosed glut of homes is about to come to light, and it’s likely to further depress values and sales.

“There’s going to be a flood listed for sale at some point,” John Burns, a real-estate consultant based in Irvine, California, told the Wall Street Journal this week. He expects prices to decline another 6 percent this year. The analysts at Amherst predicted an 8 percent drop, while a Sept. 11 report by Barclays forecasted a further 13 percent drop, saying the worst of the crash is “decidedly underway,” with increased foreclosures sapping “the strength of the recovery in all but the most optimistic of scenarios.”

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/new-housing-crash-looms-as-shadow-inventory-climbs-past-7-million-analysts-2009-09-25

[HCE SuiGeneris]

1. Default Servicing (DS) News

An interesting channel from which to gather information.

[napi21]

2. I'm surious about the foreclosure story. A little over a year ago when the foreclosure

#'s were in the news every day, what did they actually count? The # of homes that had actually been evacuated, or the # of foreclosures reported by the lending insts? I ask because I've read that in order to qualify for at least some of the refi's you have to be IN FORECLOSURE already. In the OP it described the shadow inventory as "loan mods, redefaults". I don't recall them ever adjusting the foreclosure #'s for homes that were refi'd and not f-closed upon, so are they trying to count the same homes twice?

[Royal Sloan 09]

3. K & R nt

[dembotoz]

4. the source does not automatically bother me

While it is sad that something like default services news exists,
I can understant that people who are in the business would create a market for such a publication.

For my job i spend a fair amount of time reading stuff from a variety of sources.
Some credible, some lesser.

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

5. Plus, new job losses will trigger more foreclosures.

We're swirling the drain as far as real estate goes. There are still big drops in value coming.

When the median home price is in line with the median salary, then shall peace fall over the land and then shall housing stabilize.

It really isn't rocket science.