Ughh not feeling good about this...Nate's new numbers

[Bill219]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/538-model-posits-brown-as-31-favorite.html

538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite

The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG, Research 2000 and InsiderAdvantage which show worsening numbers for Brown's opponent, Martha Coakley.

----------------------------more at link

I have been phonebanking for almost three days now..I was getting good responses hardly any Brown support

What is going on in MA?

[HipChick]

1. At the same time, pollsters are more error-prone in special rather than general elections,

[louis-t]

2. I'm waiting for exit polls.

They are "never wrong" according to Mr. Morris. Ahem.

[RoyGBiv]

3. Phonebanking ...

I've been doing some from Texas as well, and what I figured out was that this is a GOTV effort, not an attempt to convince too many undecideds. Most all my calls have involved positive responses too. I realized eventually that I'm calling Democrats and others who are known to be generally supportive but may need a nudge to get out the door and go to the polling place. Some of them didn't even know there was an election!

That seems to be a big part of the problem. Coakley will win if Dems don't sit on their hands, but a lot of them don't realize the stakes.

We live in a political junkie bubble on DU. This just isn't as important to some people as it is to those of us who mainline political news.

[rockymountaindem]

4. Sounds like this one's over n/t

[Shrek]

5. Pretty much inline with Intrade

Lots of intraday movement.

[Hello_Kitty]

6. Are you calling Dems or independents? eom

[Ian David]

7. !!!!! NEW RULE !!!!!

!!!!! NEW RULE !!!!!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7498975

[NYC_SKP]

10. Oh, good. I thought maybe you'd come up with a New "!!!!! NEW RULE !!!!!",

which would have been kind of ambitious!

Two in one day... :silly:

:P

[Ian David]

11. You're only allowed one new rule per day. That's one of the old, new rules. n/t

[clear eye]

8. Coakley will get it due to overwhelming Ds in MA.

Since Brown is also "pro-choice", there's no advantage to ES&S's social conservative fanatics to tamper w/ the count.

[harkadog]

9. You are forgetting independents which out number Ds

51% to 37%.

[LLStarks]

12. Nate's almost never wrong. His projections are a death knell. nt

[timeforpeace]

13. Keep hope alive.