Recession over? Economic Activity Fell In Half of the U.S, In Last 3 Months (Chart)

[Donnachaidh]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/01/recession-over-economic-a_n_521808.html

Despite widespread hints that the recession has ended and a generally rosy outlook for tomorrow's job numbers, economic activity fell in half of U.S. states over the past three months, according to this great map that Calculated Risk pulled from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

In its monthly report, the Philadelphia Fed reported that while the coincident index rose nationally and in 18 states over the quarter, it also dropped off in 25 states. (A coincident index is a single value, derived from a series of economic indicators, that the Fed uses to monitor the health of the economy. If the index rises, it suggests an increase in economic activity, while a decrease indicates a contraction.)

As Vincent Fernando at The Business Insider points out, these uneven outcomes may help explain why so many Americans are dubious that the country is emerging from the downturn.

Check out the CHART below:



More at the link above --

[Lost4words]

1. Bright Siders must read this!

[NJmaverick]

3. So they can be misinformed?

[Lost4words]

5. yea, thats it, really though, you need to read more

avoid the mainstream read the Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein, it will knock you over. Cause there is more at play here than meets the eye.

[NJmaverick]

9. I spend my time reading articles, books and online information

that provides me with information, facts and better understanding of how the world works. I have little time to spend reading books that tell me how to think as I prefer to form my own opinions based on what I learn. It's this practice that allowed me to easily spot the terrible flaws and the outdated information used in this OP's article.

[ixion]

10. ...

:rofl:

[QC]

14. +1

[Lost4words]

17. so you also think Naomi Klien writes propaganda?

go ahead you can knock her work as well, come on lets hear it,

you are actually agreeing with a philestine who is unfamilure with one of the greatest social/investigative writers in our time.



I guess you dislike Michael Moore as well yes no!?

[QC]

32. You should read a lot more carefully.

That way you might not be so likely to attack people who agree with you.

[Lost4words]

35. Dear friend, your post agreed with those who disagreed with me, and had nothing to read!!!!!!!

FOLLOW the thread link, you responded to the poster above your post and this is indicated by your post being indented. You did not respond to me so I didnt follow, sorry bout that.

Am I missing something, I could be wrong?

you hit a 1+ (with no text) under a no text agreement link to this post (I spend my time reading articles, books and online information) so following the thread you were agreeing with the person agreeing with the poster I was disagreeing with. So you wernt agreeing with me, you by your post, were agreeing with others not me.

You need to be sure where your post fits and or include some text so others will know what you are saying.

I am sorry if there was a misunderstanding.

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Lost4words]

38. Good for you I am glad all are gleeful happy spirits.

Best to you and may God Bless.

Then your post to me Was in error. Ash your friend how the lillle links work and you will do mux=ch better.

oh and thank you for the compliments :hi:

[Lost4words]

39. so QC, you are hanging with xon right now?

its good you two can share. you can learn allot from xon. Between you me and all of DU, I think you could do better.

see you all at the revival! :hi:

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TexasObserver]

19. Why the personal attacks on those two posters?

Your use of the term "simpleton" to describe the other posters is a personal attack.

One made a good point, and the other agreed with it. All they did was take another point of view from you, and frankly, they're right.

[Lost4words]

23. So you are addressing my right to disagree?

so its the gang of three now, take your best shot. Because I GIVE UP!

I will follow your recomendation and the following are my new current positions.

The economy IS getting better!

The world is becoming more fair!

there is no global climate chaNGE

rEADING IS bAD!

Ignorance is power!

Globalization is a faliacy!

Up IS down!

War iis good!

No other Homeland is better than our Homeland.

This is a good HCR!

T-O is trying to help me be a better DU citizen!

Dont let anyone TELl YOU HOW TO think unless they are on DU

now that bush is gone we have no natural enemies.

Naomi Klien would be better if she wrote about football.

:argh:

[Lost4words]

27. and because they remind me of you

[TexasObserver]

37. I'll hope you'll feel better later in the day.

Perhaps you'll be able to express yourself in a more mature manner later in the day.

[Lost4words]

40. Well I am trying to follow your example T O, less harsh more marsh

self deleted Too Much Information, re energize self protective field, screens up.

[TexasObserver]

42. We need health care as a right, not a burden.

We need that security net LBJ talked of building, too.

Unfortunately, Reagan made being selfish respectable again, and since then his refrain has only gotten worse, and repeated by far too many Democrats.

[Lost4words]

43. yea well what can I say, you of course are correct.

I am going to self delete my post to you, I am not comfortable, and feel exposed, I wish I hadn't brought it up.

Thanks & sorry to offend.

[Lost4words]

13. Good greif try something new, take advice from those who

were where you are now. Nobody is telling you how to think. But this post really sound ignorent, so you really know how the world works, that pretty damn good, I have many questions for you.
The Shock Doctrine is a book, you deciede its value to you after reading it not before. Naomi Klein is a renouned author, not Rush Limbaugh. I suspect you are not half as informed as you say or think you are and it shows to those who are a little more informed than yourself. Yoyu can take that brain of yours and develope a thinking power house but not if you missfeed or underfeed it.
You can insult me but I wont let you insult Naomi Klien or her works as anything less than the information we all need to know.

The fact that you are unfamilure with her works speaks VOLUMES to me as to where you are comming from. You can arm yourself with information, you weeken yourself with unconsious ignorance.

to hell with spell check this time!

Later, one who knows all

[NJmaverick]

18. I went back and read and reread my post. It confirmed what I thought

which is that I didn't insult Naomi Klien or her works or you for that matter. I simple stated my position that I prefer to form my own conclusions and the considerable time I devote to reading is best used on increasing my knowledge and understanding.

Among my interests is professional football. I am the same way in that passion. I don't really care about the opinions of sports writers. They are useful in terms of getting news, but their knowledge of the sport is on par with the average fan. Instead I prefer to read the articles from former coaches, GMs and players who have far more insight into the game.

For all of Naomi's considerable writing skills (I would certainly not speak poorly of her or her general views) she doesn't have a great wealth of life experience. So while I would be happy to read her articles that provide reporting of events, I would prefer to read subject matter experts instead.

[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NJmaverick]

22. I am right more than I am wrong. When I am wrong I go back

and see what failings caused me to make an error, so I can try to avoid a repeat.

What I don't do when I am wrong is get all nasty and insulting toward the person that pointed it out. I don't make insulting comments like "you are always correct aren't you, how wonderful" or "In my opinion you are not much of a Democrat, Liberal or progressive". That wouldn't be particularly helpful and in fact would prevent me from learning from my mistakes and hamper my acquisition of wisdom.

[Lost4words]

24. you must be so evolved, are part alien?

how wonderful to be you

[Lost4words]

29. I would like to mention that your statement " I am right more than I am wrong"

is only an Opinion, not universal fact!

[Greyhound]

52. Psst.

I think he thinks he is House.

Don't disturb the delusion, it can be dangerous.

[Lost4words]

26. Cause life is just like football. we agree on this

The owners pay lots for the best talent, destroys their bodies and mind sometimes and kicks them out into the cold when they are used up. In this world its great to be an owner, not so good if you are a mid level player.

[Forkboy]

51. And it's helped so little.

[HughMoran]

28. What's a Bright Sider?

Does it look like this?



or this?

[Lost4words]

30. Bright Siders often communicate with pictures.

dont tase me man!

[NJmaverick]

2. Your "story' is based on a TWO MONTH OLD map

and a flawed analysis that counted states with out regard to population or amount of economic growth or loss

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[robinblue]

46. "over the past three months" she says. So the map is not old.

[no limit]

4. Sounds like someone keeps moving the goal post

So now if the economy imporves through out the country people will start point at individual states where things didn't improve? That seems very fair.

I have a lot of beef with this administration, but it seems like some people just want to pick fights for the sake of picking fights.

[Lost4words]

7. I heard that........

[Double T]

8. The 'recession' is not over and the depression continues down the tracks.

wall street and corporate earnings have little to do with most American's economic reality. It's an election year and we are being lied to baby!!

[Mari333]

11. ....

[NJmaverick]

21. What direction is the red line pointing?

[Lost4words]

25. gosh that proves it for me thanks so much!

Red lines dont lie. I am sorry, I was in error, that line sure was red. Man why didnt somebody show me a red line before, instead I have been making a fool of myself. damn how could I be so wrong on this? Has everybody seen this, my god we have been lied to, the economy was never in trouble. SHit I an so stinking stupid, I hate myself, it was all here for me to see and I chose to see the false way. I have to say a BIG Thank you to those who have taken the time to enlighten me on the workings of this world. Can you ever forgive me?

I am such a blithering stupid idiot sissy ass fool. I just didn't see the red line on the chart. Why was my education so lacking, why was I so reluctant to accept the facts shown to me by those with more understanding of the WORLD than I.

I know nothing, I am a fool. I am so sorry I forced the use of the nuclear option.
I will strive to never force others to use the NO on me again, I promise to be a good little solider.

little jimmy

[NeedleCast]

12. Two months old?

[scheming daemons]

16. Alternate headline: Economic activity ROSE in half of the U.S.

Classic glass-half-empty OP.

Half the states saw a decline, but the other half the states saw an increase.

[Lost4words]

31. Boris, don't tell Moose and Squirrel

[tonysam]

33. The recession has been "ending" for a year.

If there is no substantial job creation, there is NO recovery. Period.

[Lost4words]

41. that talk will get you targeted watch out,

[area51]

50. True,

you can't have a recovery w/o jobs. Unfortunately they don't teach that in economics school, which is why we hear the constant lie that we've "recovered" when there are few jobs.

[Subdivisions]

34. All economic activity, especially economic growth, requires and ever-increasing

supply of raw energy, specifically crude oil. Oil production is in decline. As long as it is in decline, and in the absense of any suitable replacement, THERE CAN BE NO SUSTAINED RECOVERY, much less a return to economic growth.

[Nikki Stone1]

44. The Ministry of Truth strikes again.

K & R

[amborin]

45. Robert Reich: "no jobs recovery" re: today's jobs numbers

The US economy added 162,000 jobs in March. Great news until you look more closely. In March, the federal government began hiring census takers big time. These are six-month temp jobs, and they tell us nothing about underlying trends in the labor market. It’s hard to gauge precisely how many were hired — probably between 100,000 and 140,000. A million will need to be hired over the next few months. Subtract these, and today’s job numbers are nothing to write home about.

There are some positive signs. Manufacturing payrolls expanded a bit, heath care employers added 27,000 jobs, and about 40,000 private-sector temp jobs were added. But payrolls continue to be slashed in financial services and the information industry.

Bottom line: This is no jobs recovery.

Since the Great Recession began, the economy has lost 8.4 million jobs and failed to create another 2.7 million needed just to keep up with population growth. That means we’re more than 11 million in the hole right now. And that hole keeps deepening every month we fail to add at least 150,000 new jobs, again reflecting population growth.

A census-taking job is better than no job, but it’s no substitute for the real thing.

robertreich.org

[laughingliberal]

47. I'm not sure how much longer we can hold on

Just heard from a niece today who ran out of extensions on her unemployment a couple of months ago and was evicted from her apartment a couple of weeks ago. She has been bunking here and there with friends for a couple of weeks. Has been steadily seeking work for a year and nothing there. Our official unemployment rate here is 13.2%. My husband and I have been bunked in with a friend for a year and have managed to keep just enough work coming in to eat and put gas in the car to get to job sites. I felt so helpless. It's cold as hell and snowing here. My husband went and got her (she does not even have a car for shelter). I didn't know what we could do. We can't ask our friend to take the niece in along with us. I fixed her something to eat and we talked and watched TV. I was wondering if we had enough to get her a cheap motel room for the night just to get her out of the cold. My husband made some calls to other family and found a nephew whose wife and kids are out of town for the weekend and he was able to come get her and give her a place til Sunday night. After that, who knows? I just don't know how people are going to survive this.

[DCBob]

48. When economists talk about US recession ending they usually refer to the entire US as an average..

There will always be states lagging in the recovery. Even i the best of times some states will have bad numbers.

[RoyGBiv]

49. Fell in Half?

That is the most idiotic headline regarding the state of the economy I have seen in the past two years, and that's saying something.

"Economic Activity Fell in Half"

The person who wrote that has about as much understanding of the English language and how the economy works as a trained monkey.

Well, for those who never bother even to try to understand the substance behind a headline, I suppose I can now begin to understand why the public is so monumentally misinformed about pretty much everything.