Short-term good news, long-term bad news?

[tom_paine]

Like my feelings on HCR, I am deeply internally divided on the "recovery"; what it actually represents and what it means in the longer term.

One cannot deny the individual benefits of both the ostensible recovery and HCR, and yet are we not setting ourselves up for MUCH greater pain down the road with both?

It is no small thing that an estimated 32 million Americans will be newly covered by HCR, nor that the jobs created (if government statistics can be trusted) are benefiting individuals, as well, but are the methods by which they are achieved exacerbating the root causes of the problems while providing a temporary palliative?

The $13,000,000,000,000+ bank bailouts may have blunted the recession from becoming a depression, but they also allowed the entire corrupted financial system to continue on with "business as usual". The same "business as usual" that caused both the Great Depression and Great Recession in the first place?

In both cases, have we traded away our future to relieve a little pain now? HCR mandates more than people having to buy insurance, it also mandates a tremendous expansion of corporate political power, combined with the Bush Court's recently "corporations as people" ruling, when our nation is already being crushed by too much concentration of Corporate Power. Bank bailouts rob $13,000,000,000,000+ from the poor and shrinking middle class to give to the rich, who loan it back to the poor and shrinking middle class at 25% interest.

Thus, I am conflicted. Happy for the individuals who will be helped by HCR and the fact that the economy did not go into full Depression.

Deeply concerned that corporate power has been magnified greatly and that perhaps the main difference between Recession and Depression is that in a Depression, the wealthy aristocracy shares at least a little of the pain and must make some sacrifice, while in a Recession, it is we misera plebs who shoulder 100% of the pain and sacrifice.

Also, deeply concerned that these solutions are temporary in the extreme, and will lead to worse for the bottom 90% of Americans down the road as the power and wealth of the top 1% and 0.01% grows unabated.

What are your thoughts, DU?

[villager]

1. I think I loved your definition of the difference between a "Depression" and a "Recession"

"Recession" is for the rest of us. "Depression" is when even the ruling elites have to pause and take notice.

Everything was done, this time, to keep them from pausing, or taking notice.

[kentuck]

2. It does appear...

that the corrupted financial system has been permitted to continue as is, which does not bode well for the long run.

[joeybee12]

3. Also, HCR simply heped to continue our unsuistainable health insurance industry

...unsustainable in the sense that it does nothing to keep down costs...this issue will be revisted again soon once the partying is over and others finally realize it wasn't done at all correctly.

[Tansy_Gold]

4. Check out Matt Taibbi's "The Peasant Mentality"

I'd forgotten about it until my daughter reminded me the other night.

"You know you’re a peasant when you worship the very people who are right now, this minute, conning you and taking your shit. Whatever the master does, you’re on board."


Or his more recent "Looting Main Street," http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32906678/looting_main_street/print
which deals with exactly the short term good, long term terrible issue you raised.


As I posted in another thread, I don't begrudge those who have found new jobs. A couple of friends in the real world have just done so, and I'm delighted for them and for their families. But I caution friends and even enemies not to take this "recovery" as a fait accompli. There are too many questions left unanswered that deal with the fundamentals of economics -- not to mention the accuracy/honesty of government reports. (That's how you get arguments on DU about ADP's jobs numbers being bogus, but BLS's numbers are gold standard. Or whatever.)

Nor am I saying the jobs haven't been created. I JUST DON'T KNOW FOR SURE.

We know that the housing bubble was in part based on a notion that housing prices would continue to rise and never fall. People went out and bought more house than they could reasonably afford -- whether they lied or were bamboozled doesn't matter -- on the basis of what really was false hope. Either the mortgage broker instilled that false hope or the buyer flimflammed himself. Again, it doesn't matter. It was all based on a false hope.

Now, tell yourself, both you Tom_Paine and any readers/lurkers, would you go out today and buy a brand new car solely on the basis of the hope engendered by today's jobs numbers? I'm not talking about whether or not GMAC would finance it. All things being equal, do you think this is sufficient evidence that a full and solid recovery is established and won't just be a spike in a continuing slide to a still-distant bottom?

If you don't have absolute faith in that recovery, then you're closer to my "doom and gloom" belief than you want to acknowledge.


Tansy Gold

[tom_paine]

6. We're probably close to being on the exact same page, Tansy.

But I am trying to look at both sides of it.

[Tansy_Gold]

8. Isn't that sort of like trying to look at both sides of

"The earth is flat" vs "The earth is round" argument?

I just don't think a one- or even a two-month modest increase in the raw number of jobs is evidence of a strong recovery, because I think unless and until the fundamentals are changed, a strong recovery is impossible.

But that's just me.



Tansy Gold

[tom_paine]

10. I suppose it is. n/t

[Newest Reality]

5. Also,

if you want to watch the impact that the good news has, take a look at the stock market's reactions to things, and especially watch oil and other commodities.

Oil shot-up on the "job" news. The thing is, any improvements in the economy will drive oil prices up. Higher oil prices will have a negative impact on every aspect of the economy, and so on. That also applies, a bit less, to precious metals and later we are likely to see some grain commodities rise quickly as are meat, cocoa, coffee and sugar. Inflation will not be a benefit to bringing back the Status Quo.

The problem is SYSTEMIC.

[European Socialist]

7. Bush was driving us off a cliff at 100 mph....

Obama slowed it down to 55 mph. I guess we should be happy?

[uponit7771]

12. Obama = Bush but slower? You know how worn that is about now?

[Greyhound]

9. Even the short-term gains you've mentioned barely qualify as good news,

and only then for the very few that will garner some useful benefit.

The inescapable bottom line to every step this administration has taken is that they overwhelmingly benefit the perpetrators of misery at the expense of all, while maintaining and even expanding the problems that resulted in disaster in the first place. Obama & Co. have spent all the money we can borrow to kick the same can further down the same road.
:kick: & R

[uponit7771]

13. I'd take barely vs not at all

[Greyhound]

14. Sounds like you are a member of the former, rather than the latter. n/t

[eridani]

11. The recovery is certainly real enough. The problem is the New Normal that we are recovering TO

Major, major suckage.