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Why ‘Obamanomics’ is working: Ignore polls, watch the markets: Economy is perking up

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Godhumor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 10:28 PM
Original message
Why ‘Obamanomics’ is working: Ignore polls, watch the markets: Economy is perking up
Edited on Fri Apr-09-10 10:32 PM by Godhumor
Source: Business Week

The U.S. manufacturing sector has expanded for eight straight months, the Business Roundtable's measure of CEO optimism reached its highest level since early 2006, and in March the economy added 162,000 jobs — more than it had during any month in the past three years. "There is more business confidence out there," says Boeing CEO Jim McNerney. "This Administration deserves significant credit."

It is worth stepping back to consider, in cool-headed policy terms, how all of this came to be — and whether the Obama team's approach amounts to a set of successful emergency measures or a new economic philosophy: Obamanomics.

For most of the past two decades, the reigning economic approach in Democratic circles has been Rubinomics, a set of priorities fashioned in the 1990s by Bill Clinton's Treasury Secretary, Robert E. Rubin, the former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs. Broadly, Rubinomics was a three-legged stool consisting of restrained government spending, lower budget deficits, and open trade, which were meant in combination to reassure financial markets, keep capital flowing, and thus put the country on a path to prosperity.

Read more: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36322393/ns/business-businessweekcom/



Most positive article I've seen on his economic policies in a major publication/website.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
1. Yeah, Wall Street is doing FINE while Americans are either unemployed or underemployed.
Many upper middle class and wealthy democrats are so damn out of touch they actually believe us average wage slaves Americans are buying into this pure unadulterated BULLSHIT.

Nope when you don't have a paycheck or it doesn't go far enough to care for one's family, no amount of "happy talk" is going to sway opinions.

No Sale. :thumbsdown:
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 10:39 PM
Response to Original message
2. There is large segment here who will have none of this talk.


It is looking like a V shaped recovery. The data really seems to show that. Hopefully, the job market is just picking up steam.

I really don't see why overpowering doom and gloom and pessimism is somehow the preferable way to evaluate the economy right now.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. JOBS! People need jobs. To hell with investment portfolios, stocks ...
Edited on Fri Apr-09-10 10:42 PM by ShortnFiery
and various wealth management schemes.

The above means little to nothing to the average American. :grr: :thumbsdown:
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TomCADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:21 AM
Response to Reply #3
19. And People Are Now Getting Jobs Under The Democrats!
First, I know someone will point to the current high unemployment rate to argue that the economy has not begun to turn around. However, unemployment is never a leading economic indicator. The employment rate typically improves on the tail end of the recovery from a recession, and the economy has reversed itself and begun to grow under President Obama:

<>

The best you can hope for is for the unemployment rate to start coming down as the economy begins to improve, though this has NOT happened in the last two recessions where unemployment lagged the overall improvement in the economy:

<>

Indeed, this trend appears to be holding true as the unemployment picture has dramatically reversed itself and improved under President Obama following the carnage of the Bush administration:

<>


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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:57 AM
Response to Reply #19
25. Under-employed. Mac-JOBS. This bunk will not work. eom
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TomCADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 10:16 PM
Response to Reply #25
53. Which Is Why The Stimulus Was A Great Step, As Well As The Auto Bailout
Can you imagine if President Obama had heeded the views of Republicans and the Tea Party astro-turf crowd, and did not put any federal aid on the line? Now, GM appears to be resurgent, and even more importantly, many U.S. auto part makers did not suddenly lose a large customer. These companies employ thousands of American workers whose jobs would have truly evaporated but for the actions of the Obama administration.

<>
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Crystal Clarity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #19
43. Great Post Tom
Unemployment #'s ARE lagging indicators... Prior to the election of Pesident Obama, the economy was dealt a serious blow. The unemployment figures you site are lingering symptoms of that economic blow...

Akin IMO to the pain, bruising and swelling a person experiances after a sprained ankle (for example). Often the repercussions of the initial event feel worse then the event itself. And it may take a long time to heal.

I hope this doesn't seem too silly an analogy (I'm usually not very good at that sort of thing). :blush:

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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. Maybe there's also certain set of people who actually understand economics
and still know how to think critically about various articles- who might be able to separate the wheat from the chaff on a daily basis.

:think:

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paulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. the unemployment rate in Colorado went up last month
along with 19 other states.

V shaped economy?

Hard to see from here.

I guess things look a lot rosier when you're not a statistic.

In the meantime, for those of us that are, your post is insulting.

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liberation Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #2
15. I don't think you realize the projective deliciousness of the picture in your post....
:-)
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:31 AM
Response to Reply #2
21. Yep. This is much like the Clinton recovery.
Edited on Sat Apr-10-10 12:33 AM by onehandle
The stock market went up before the jobs returned and then some by 22 million.

But we are starting at a lower point. It'll happen.

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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 01:49 AM
Response to Reply #21
29. So-o-o- the wh-h-a-t will be the equivalent of the dot com
Bubble?

I don't know what they can bubble-ize this time around but perhaps someone out there knows.
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laughingliberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 02:44 AM
Response to Reply #29
32. Probably Cap and Trade if it passes
We have to ask ourselves why Goldman Sachs is lobbying for its passage.
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benh57 Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 10:43 PM
Response to Original message
4. Did you guys even read the article above?
"in March the economy added 162,000 jobs — more than it had during any month in the past three years"
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pinboy3niner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Yes, that's positive--but the cheerleaders and the naysayers are both right
Businesses benefiting from the progress are still holding back on creating jobs. The positive news is only a precursor of job creation, because it's not happening yet. This may be a good sign that it's going to happen, but that's small consolation to people who are tapped out and need jobs NOW.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 01:01 AM
Response to Reply #4
28. What KINDS of jobs? TEMPORARY ... no benefits ... Mac-Jobs. eom
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onenote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #28
41. link?
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wellst0nev0ter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 02:25 AM
Response to Reply #4
30. And you need 127,000 jobs a month just to keep up with the population growth
And that doesn't include the 8,000,000 jobs that was lost due to the recession we still need to make up, which would mean 300,000 jobs per month over the next five years. Point to all the statistics you want, people are still going to notice how they can't keep up with their house payments.
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quiller4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #30
48. Not if you can encourage early retirements you don't and the
rebound on Wall Streeet has many boomers feeling more secure about their retirement plans.
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elocs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 10:58 PM
Response to Original message
8. I knew I read this here 4 hours ago:
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Thor_MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 10:59 PM
Response to Original message
9. My 401K from my last job is up 67% from inauguration day
I haven't touched it since halfway through the Bush disaster. Frow what I can see, the stock markets were essentially a wash or slightly down for Bush's 8 years. I'm getting close to having what I had before Bush screwed the entire country. Yes, there is farther to go before the GOP recession is over, but progress is being made. Maybe the whiners would like Dumya back?
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EV_Ares Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. The market itself has gone up 35% since Obama took office.
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TomCADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 11:29 PM
Response to Original message
11. Shhh! Watch Fox News! People Are Angry! The Recession and 9/11 Were Caused By Obama!
Heck, watch the Sunday News on any channel, and you get a choice between crazy Republicans and conservative DINOs. The only time you will here a liberal or progressive is if they are going to criticize or attack another Democrat.
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galileoreloaded Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 11:37 PM
Response to Original message
12. There is an old saying. When they cut the fat, everybody bitches, when they saw limbs
nobody says anything.

50% analysis is NOT helpful when we have real issues out there in the world.

By the way, your IRA and 401K hasn't gone up, and the reasons are myriad. Not the least of which is the fact that the FED bought 92% of all UST in 2009. Just printed it out of thin air. So, compared to debt and currency stable countries, you are just as wiped out as you were a year ago. Sorry. It's just the greater fool theory at work and well, its working.

We need to get away from the Pollyanna politics, and get to fixing the underlying structural deficiencies.




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Iowa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:24 AM
Response to Reply #12
20. Yep, they're monetizing the debt...
...and this does not bode well for our IRAs and 401(k)s. And with politics as exists today, I don't hold much hope that the underlying deficiencies will be addressed.
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Dark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #12
44. Would you mind explaining that a little more?
Seriously, I don't understand what you mean.
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galileoreloaded Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #44
51. Sure.
You see, the "historic" GDP rise is due mostly to hot money inflows and profit booked by brokerages which was created by massive QE (Quantitative Easing), most notably via MBS purchases by the FED that have more than doubled their balance sheet. Banks (and brokerages by default) dumped the bad debt onto the taxpayer, and are using the money they received at the original par value to boost the stock markets value. Why, you ask would they do that?

They need people like the people here on internet chat boards to talk up the American market and economic outlook to help coax the currently non-existent private dollars back into the market, replacing the government dollars, and then extract those private dollars yet again via a monster sell off. It's called a "Grandma" or "Grandpa" rally, as it entices Granny to run back in, afraid of missing the boat, only to be ripped out again. Only this time we need to rename it a "Boomer" rally, as they are the demographic with the highest net worth and the most vested interest in the market.

The FACTS, on the other hand show a severely crippled economy with only the only active sector in the economy being government intervention. All economic activity, all the money circulating right now, is attributable directly to the government, and the most basic of staples for our population.

Ask yourself, what one thing can you think of, besides war, could Americans utilize as an economic engine for future growth? China has wind/solar already so don't cheat and tell me "green revolution". Two years from now that subsidy money is gone, along with those ideas, until necessity rears it's ugly and immediate head.

Employment is not even a reliable indicator friend. That is 1950's thinking for Americans. How many baristas per sq/ mile do we need? Imagine being 18 and out of HS or 23 and out of college. What does your job hunt look like?

We are Greece, but nobody told us.
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TomCADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-10 11:51 PM
Response to Original message
13. Unemployment Is Never A Leading Economic Indicator
You generally need the economy to begin to grow before the unemployment rate begins to decline. This may be due in part to the fact that as the economy grows, folks who dropped out of the job market begin to look once again.


In the last two recessions unemployment was a lagging indicator peaking approximately 18 months after the recession officially ended. In the four recessions between 1970 and 1982 unemployment was a coincident indicator, starting to rise with the recession and pretty much peaking as the economy was just starting to recover.


<>

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liberation Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. That is correct, however the stock market is also not correlated with the reality of the economy
Which is why is dangerous to take an indicator based on expectations and subjective perception, as the sole barometer of reality.

That being said, it is much better to have a rising stock market than a depressed one, since unfortunately Wallstreet pretty much controls our economy (and we furthered their control).
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TomCADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:19 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. Most Other Indicators Show That The Democrats Have Been Good For The Economy
First, I know someone will point to the current high unemployment rate to argue that the economy has not begun to turn around. However, unemployment is never a leading economic indicator. The employment rate typically improves on the tail end of the recovery from a recession, and the economy has reversed itself and begun to grow under President Obama:

<>

The best you can hope for is for the unemployment rate to start coming down as the economy begins to improve, though this has NOT happened in the last two recessions where unemployment lagged the overall improvement in the economy. Indeed, this trend appears to be holding true as the unemployment picture has dramatically reversed itself and improved under President Obama following the carnage of the Bush administration:

<>
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liberation Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:38 AM
Response to Reply #17
22. I am not denying that at all...
... it is pretty self evident that Dems, albeit far from stellar, are indeed a much welcome break from the utter disaster which the GOP tends to visit upon us when they are in charge.

I am just saying, that simply focus on the market is myopic. Since the market itself is fairly removed from reality... so much so that sometimes it is used to create it. I always found that aspect of capitalism rather scary and fascinating at the same time.

Also the graphs are a clever way of showing "growth" which is "memoryless." Which would be fine if there was no ground to make up for, which is indeed the hole which Bush put us into.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 01:00 AM
Response to Reply #17
27. Yes, good luck as selling that LOAD. eom
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:59 AM
Response to Reply #13
26. Tell the people who have become homeless as some nurture their investment wealth.
:puke:
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galileoreloaded Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 03:28 PM
Response to Reply #13
49. delete
Edited on Sat Apr-10-10 03:31 PM by galileoreloaded
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galileoreloaded Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #13
50. delete
Edited on Sat Apr-10-10 03:32 PM by galileoreloaded
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whathappened Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:03 AM
Response to Original message
14. this is chit
all i no is the bottom is being ate out of our s.s. checks , no inflation is b.s. , well the rich are shuffleing there money around the people on the bottom are saying what the fook is happening , fook the stock market , it has nothing to do with real life out in the streets
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TomCADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:20 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. Employment Losses Have Stopped, and The Economy Has Grown Under The Democrats
First, I know someone will point to the current high unemployment rate to argue that the economy has not begun to turn around. However, unemployment is never a leading economic indicator. The employment rate typically improves on the tail end of the recovery from a recession, and the economy has reversed itself and begun to grow under President Obama:

<>

The best you can hope for is for the unemployment rate to start coming down as the economy begins to improve, though this has NOT happened in the last two recessions where unemployment lagged the overall improvement in the economy:

<>

Indeed, this trend appears to be holding true as the unemployment picture has dramatically reversed itself and improved under President Obama following the carnage of the Bush administration:

<>
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Lost4words Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:55 AM
Response to Reply #18
23. I suspect you have limited perspective, have a nice day! nt
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TomCADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #23
52. Nationwide Employment Statistics Are Limited? Sorry, That's All American Voters...
...care about.
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paulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 09:38 AM
Response to Reply #18
38. for the unemployed, unemployment is very much
a "leading economic indicator".

Of course the economy has improved under the Obama administration - my fear is that the constant trumpeting of the minuscule gains we have made on the economy will equate to some kind of "mission accomplished" mindset in that area - and we've already seen signs of this, as Obama has ruled out any federal jobs programs and instead placed his full trust in the private sector.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:56 AM
Response to Original message
24. How many times are people going to post the same damn article? eom
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DesertDiamond Donating Member (838 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 02:38 AM
Response to Original message
31. Reminds me of the Reaganomics years when "Gross National Product" was always doing fine
While the unemployment and homeless figures were staggering. But, who cares? The people who mattered were doing great!! Who cares that the rest of America was becoming a wasteland?
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laughingliberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 02:49 AM
Response to Reply #31
33. I was thinking about that today-how people talk about the longest expansion of the economy in
history under Reagan or some such pap. And when Clinton ran he clearly laid out the problem of the upper income Americans seeing their incomes go up while other declined or flatlined. I think it's the same, now.
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old mark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 03:02 AM
Response to Original message
34. Jobs WILL come back, slowly at first, but I believe the change will be strong in
Edited on Sat Apr-10-10 03:02 AM by old mark
a few months.

mark
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Abq_Sarah Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 03:22 AM
Response to Reply #34
35. A few months?
The way oil prices are climbing, I'd say that's overly optimistic.
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old mark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 07:53 AM
Response to Reply #35
37. I believe things will become palpably better this summer. Certainly not
completely batter, but we will see a big difference.

mark
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Abq_Sarah Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 01:21 PM
Response to Reply #37
46. Out of curiosity, what makes you think that?
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DailyGrind51 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 07:03 AM
Response to Original message
36. Only a severe reduction in unemployment will help the economy.
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Naturalist111 Donating Member (362 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 10:22 AM
Response to Original message
39. Wall Street is a sham. Why pay attention to it?
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Greyhound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 01:30 PM
Response to Reply #39
47. Because if you're fixated on how much the parasites are "making",
you're not watching how much they are stealing.


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Johonny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 10:47 AM
Response to Original message
40. I know it must be working because my retired friends
are starting to complain non-stop about Obama. When the economy was really down some of them exactly started bad mouthing Republicans. A few voted for Obama. Now it's right back to Faux talking points. Last night it was on and on about income tax...
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edhopper Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 10:54 AM
Response to Original message
42. Wall Street went up
because the Feds are loaning them trillions of dollars at no interest.
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-10 12:28 PM
Response to Original message
45. Corporatist garbage.
Sure, ignore what ordinary people think! The Wall Street Fuckers know better! :sarcasm:
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