via Americablog...
The next couple months are pivotal for the viable pro-equality bills on Capitol Hill. Over the next couple days, we're going to see how motivated Democrats are to take up pro-gay legislation. Already, as John noted, there's talk among House Democrats that the members don't want to take any "tough votes" for the rest of the year. I have a feeling too many people in the Democratic caucus would consider DADT and ENDA among the "tough votes" they won't want to take.
We'll be witnessing "political homophobia" in action. In her weekly column, The Advocates' they Kerry Eleveld intimates that we're getting close to do-or-die time:
As Congress returns to work this week, all LGBT eyes will be on two agenda items: the Employment Non-Discrimination Act and DADT, with the Domestic Partnership Benefits and Obligations Act running third.
And a key question is whether one major obstruction to progress, especially on ENDA, could be the House Democratic caucus. The Hill newspaper is already reporting this morning that a Democratic leadership aide said there would be “no more tough votes” during the April and May legislative work period.
This jibes with what one Capitol Hill insider told me about Speaker Nancy Pelosi wanting to “take the temperature” of the feedback Democratic House members got from constituents during recess in the aftermath of their health care vote. The Democratic caucus meeting on Tuesday evening will surely center on this topic, but it seems some Democratic leaders are already starting to draw lines in the sand and send signals.
What isn’t clear is whether ENDA falls into the category of “tough votes” with 198 cosponsors while 216 votes are needed for passage. Rep. Tammy Baldwin has said the votes are there; all three gay elected members have gone on record saying the committee and full House vote are likely to happen shortly after return from recess.
A spokesman for the speaker pushed back on the Hill article and the notion that leadership would take a pass on difficult issues.
“The speaker has repeatedly said that every vote is a heavy lift,” Drew Hammill wrote me. “Congress will continue to work to address the needs of the American people.”Nonetheless, we are most certainly entering what I think is fair to frame as a do-or-die legislative work period on LGBT issues in April and May. As political pundit Nate Silver reminded us Friday, the prospects for Dems keeping control of the House after the midterms is increasingly grim, so
whatever equality issues are not tackled during this Congress may simply remain stalled during Obama’s presidency (or at least during his first term). The idea that Congress may not address any pro-LGBT legislation is looking a very real prospect. There's time to change that dynamic, but it's going to require
real leadership and a lot of activism of every kind.
http://gay.americablog.com/2010/04/april-and-may-may-be-do-or-die-time-for.html